贸易限制是反周期的吗?来自一个新的综合衡量标准的证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.04.008

Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Swarnali A. Hannan , Jonathan D. Ostry , Andrew K. Rose

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们利用国际货币基金组织关于外汇安排和外汇限制的年度报告中的数据，提出了一种新的贸易限制总量衡量(MATR)。最低限额与现有的贸易限制措施密切相关，但在国家和时间范围方面更为全面。我们的衡量标准适用于1949年至2019年期间多达157个国家的不平衡样本。我们使用新的MATR来重新审视贸易限制如何随着商业周期而变化。我们的研究结果证实，贸易限制通常是周期性的，但不同收入群体之间存在重要差异:发达经济体的总体贸易限制是周期性的，但新兴市场国家的总体贸易限制是逆周期的，尤其是在应对失业率上升时。

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Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure

We present a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. Our measure is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949–2019. We use our new MATR to re-examine how trade restrictiveness varies with the business cycle. Our results confirm that trade restrictions are typically a-cyclical but there is an important difference across income groups: aggregate trade restrictions are a-cyclical in advanced economies but are counter-cyclical in EMDEs, especially in response to increases in unemployment.

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来源期刊

Journal of Policy Modeling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

11.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.

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