利用蒙特卡罗模拟预测地下管道的概率漏水位置

IF 1.6 Q3 WATER RESOURCES Water Practice and Technology Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI:10.2166/wpt.2023.026
Matheus Proença, A. Paschoalini, Daniel H. S. Obata
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引用次数: 0

摘要

巴西的水资源损失率仍然令人担忧,并造成巨大的经济、社会和环境损失。尽管声学泄漏检测方法已经取得了很大进展,但其中一些方法具有侵入性,或者至少需要方便的管道表面接入点。此外,一些方法成本高昂,需要经验丰富且合格的操作员。因此,本文的目标是使用简单的分析模型建立一个基准,用于泄漏位置的地表分析,简化在供水网络中进行的搜索过程,并要求将系统干扰降至最低。对于泄漏位置预测,所提出的方法考虑了两种地震波路径——压缩体波和瑞利浅层波。压缩波的走时曲线是作为表面波的实验信息的函数来计算的。考虑到与问题输入参数相关的不确定性,进行了蒙特卡罗模拟来测试每个模型的精度。最后,通过参数研究,将两个地震事件相结合,以获得更好的泄漏震中位置预测精度。在结果中,发现的最大绝对误差为15cm,参数研究获得的最小改进为27.4%。
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Prediction of the probabilistic water leak location in underground pipelines using Monte Carlo simulation
The water loss rates in Brazil are still very concerning and cause huge financial, social, and environmental damages. Although great advances have been made in acoustic leak detection methods, some of them are intrusive or at least demand convenient access points to the pipe's surface. Furthermore, some methods are expensive and require a highly experienced and qualified operator. Thus, the goal of this paper is to establish a benchmark using a simplistic analytical model for the ground surface analysis for leaks location, simplifying the search process carried out in water networks, and requiring minimal system interference. For leak location prediction, the proposed method considered two seismic wave paths – the compressional body waves and the Rayleigh superficial waves. The traveltime curves of the compressional waves are calculated as a function of the surface wave's experimental information. Monte Carlo Simulations were carried out to test each model's precision considering uncertainties related to the input parameters of the problem. At last, through a parametric study, the two seismic events were combined to obtain better accuracy in predicting the leakage epicenter location. In the results, the maximum absolute error found was 15 cm, and the minimum improvement obtained with the parametric study was 27.4%.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
136
审稿时长
14 weeks
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