The Link between Public Health Crisis and Presidential Approval: Evidence from the COVID-19 in South Korea

This study examines the relationship between the changes in the number of the COVID-19 confirmed cases and presidential approval ratings by using cases of infectious disease prevention management in Korea. Linking the pandemic quarantine with presidential approval, we apply a time-series spillover analysis to the daily poll data on Korean presidential approval ratings. The findings demonstrate that Moon's presidential approval ratings tend to rise with the health crisis caused by the spread of the COVID-19, because the public evaluating the countermeasures against the COVID-19 of Moon's administration are likely to support Moon when the issue of the COVID-19 is salient. We also find that changes in presidential approval ratings due to the fluctuations in the number of confirmed cases are not consistent but differentiated depending on the period, because of the fatigue of people with the pandemic.