Elevated ESRS, serum FIB, Hcy and stroke history were independent risk factors to PAIS

Abstract Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic performance of serum homocysteine (Hcy) and Essen stroke risk score (ESRS) in prediction of progressing acute ischemic stroke (PAIS). Methods One hundred and thirty two acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients were retrospectively recruited from Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University from February 2016 to January 2018. The 132 AIS patients were divided into PAIS and non-progressing AIS (NPAIS) groups according to the definition of PAIS. The clinical characteristics, serum Hcy concentration, and ESRS were compared between the PAIS and NPAIS groups. The independent risk factors for PAIS were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. The prediction sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of serum Hcy and ESRS for PAIS were calculated using STATA11.0 software. Results: The elevated ESRS (OR=1.82, p<0.05), serum fibrinogen (FIB) (OR=1.18, p<0.05), Hcy (OR=1.21, p<0.05) and personal stroke history (OR=1.74, p<0.05) were independent risk factors for PAIS. The serum Hcy of the PAIS and NPAIS groups were 24.59±9.24 (μmol/L) and 18.20±8.29 (μmol/L) respectively with a statistical significance of p<0.05. The ESRS were 3.43±1.09 and 2.60±0.92 for the PAIS and NPAIS groups respectively, with a significance of p<0.05. The prediction sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 76.24%, 67.74% and 0.73 (95%CI:0.63-0.83), respectively, for serum Hcy. For ESRS, the prediction sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 69.99%, 64.52% and 0.74 (95%CI:0.63-0.84) respectively. Correlation between serum Hcy and ESRS was evaluated by a Pearson correlation test. Significant positive correlation between serum Hcy and ESRS was found in PAIS (r=0.54, p<0.05), and NPAIS patients (r=0.78, p<0.01). Conclusion: Patients with elevated ESRS, serum FIB, Hcy and stroke history had an elevated risk of developing PAIS.