有监督机器学习的ROP预测;案例研究

G. R. Darmawan, D. Irawan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

最佳钻进速度,即钻速(ROP)在钻井作业中起着重要作用。对于钻井工程师来说,计算井段所需的钻井时间一直是一个难题。当钻井时间按计划进行时,可以实现最佳ROP。许多经验方法都是基于钻井参数来模拟机械钻速的,但这些方法可能并不总是与实际的机械钻速相匹配。在某些情况下,实际ROP比计划的要慢,这可能会增加钻井成本,这是需要避免的。因此,一些使用人工智能(AI)和监督机器学习的方法已经被开发出来来克服它。监督式机器学习仅基于两口井的钻井参数数据,用于开发一个开发油田的ROP模型和ROP预测。采用梯度增强、随机森林和支持向量机对模型进行训练。然后利用钻井参数测试数据对模型进行验证。随机森林模型的R2为0.90,梯度增强模型的R2为0.86,支持向量机模型的R2为0.72,显示出较好的或有希望的结果。基于生成的模型,随机森林显示出良好的趋势,可用于未来开发井的ROP建模。
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ROP Prediction with Supervised Machine Learning; a Case Study
Optimum drilling penetration rate, known as the rate of penetration (ROP) has played  a big role in drilling operations. Planning the well   ROP   always becomes a challenge for drilling engineers to calculate the drilling time needed for the section. Optimum ROP is achieved when the time to drill the section is as planned. Many empirical approaches were develop to model the ROP based on the drilling parameters, and might not always match  the actual ROP. In some cases, the actual ROP was slower than planned, which may increase the drilling cost, which needs to be avoided. Hence, some approaches using artificial intelligent (AI), and supervised machine learning  have been develop to overcome it. Supervised machine learning is used to develop a ROP model and ROP prediction for one of  the development fields,  based only on two wells drilling parameters data. The model was train using Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. Drilling parameter test data then is used to validate the model. The model of Random Forest  shows a good or promising result with R2 of 0.90,   Gradient Boosting shows R2 of 0.86, and Support Vector Machine with R2 0.72. Based on the models generated, the Random Forest has shown good trend which could be used for modeling ROP in the future development wells.
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来源期刊
自引率
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发文量
10
审稿时长
8 weeks
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