德国扩大早期儿童保育并向第一胎和第二胎过渡

IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2022-07-22 DOI:10.1111/boer.12367
Eric Schuss, Mohammed Azaouagh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们对德国三岁以下儿童的公共资助托儿名额进行了准实验性扩张,并利用这种大规模扩张的地区差异来解释内生的和选择性的生育决定。为了考虑左右审查,我们将这种准实验框架实现到半参数Cox风险模型的设置中。利用1998年至2012年县域托儿服务的空间数据和德国社会经济研究小组(SOEP)的微观数据,我们发现,在生育前进入劳动力市场的本地无子女夫妇过渡到第一胎的概率显著增加了11.9%。然而,对于二胎的过渡,托儿时段的增加没有明显的影响。特别关注向第一胎的过渡,证明了这种影响不是由选择性居住选择和内部迁移模式驱动的。此外,大量的稳健性检验表明,受过高等教育的母亲反应最强烈,而影响并不归因于收入分配的前十分位数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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The expansion of early childcare and transitions to first and second birth in Germany

We use quasi-experimental expansion of publicly funded childcare slots for children under the age of three from Germany and exploit regional variations of this large-scale expansion to account for endogenous and selective fertility decisions. To account for left and right censoring, we implement this quasi-experimental framework into the setting of the semiparametric Cox hazard model. By using spatial data on childcare provision at the level of counties and microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1998 to 2012, we find a significant increase in the transition probability to first birth by 11.9% for native childless couples who were in the labor force before childbearing. With regard to transition to the second birth, however, no significant effect is found from the increase in childcare slots. With a particular focus on the transition to first birth, the effects are demonstrated not to be driven by selective residency choices and internal migration patterns. Furthermore, a large set of robustness checks is applied to show that highly educated mothers react the most, while effects are not attributable to the upper decile of income distribution.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
56
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of Economic Research is an international journal publishing articles across the entire field of economics, econometrics and economic history. The Bulletin contains original theoretical, applied and empirical work which makes a substantial contribution to the subject and is of broad interest to economists. We welcome submissions in all fields and, with the Bulletin expanding in new areas, we particularly encourage submissions in the fields of experimental economics, financial econometrics and health economics. In addition to full-length articles the Bulletin publishes refereed shorter articles, notes and comments; authoritative survey articles in all areas of economics and special themed issues.
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