Effect of microhabitat characteristics for predicting habitat suitability for a stalking large carnivore—the Eurasian lynx in middle Europe

Large European carnivores are generally considered forest animals. However, there are a number of interacting factors that may have different impact on the availability and suitability of habitat for individual species. Felids, because of their stalking hunting mode, are habitat specialists requiring a heterogeneous environment, making them specifically vulnerable to habitat disturbance. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), despite protection in many European countries, has a surprisingly limited range. To explain environmental factors that affect its distribution, we undertook habitat selection and habitat suitability analyses at the macrohabitat and microhabitat scales, based on lynx occurrence and environmental data in Poland. Since the species occurs in two populations, one of which inhabits lowland and the other mountainous area, we modelled habitat suitability separately in both areas and then extrapolated it for the whole country scale. The lynx selected forests with medium undergrowth density in the lowlands and highly rugged terrain in the mountain areas—a proxy of stalking cover. Habitat suitability modelling performed at the macrohabitat scale identified around 110 000 km² of habitat available from which 55 700 km² was classified as high quality including large tracts of forests in western Poland that are beyond the natural range of the lynx. However, the microhabitat model built by including stalking cover variables, decreased high-quality habitats to only 33% of the area designated at the macrohabitat scale. This model is largely consistent with the current distribution of lynx in Poland. This suggests that the simplified internal structure of forests (lacking understory cover) may act as a hindrance to increasing the distribution of lynx populations and helps to explain its limited range in the Central European lowlands. This research suggests that the microhabitat structure may play the crucial role in the effective conservation of the Eurasian lynx.