支持公共政策的LULC变化的预测情景:以巴西圣卡塔琳娜Chapecó河生态走廊为例

IF 3.2 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Land Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI:10.3390/land12010181
Juliana Mio de Souza, P. Morgado, E. M. Costa, L. F. Vianna
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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于自然社会经济驱动力和地域驱动力的未来情景和模拟方法,支持对土地利用和土地覆盖时空变化模式的研究,使我们能够超越对迄今为止发生的动态的准确诊断,提供可能替代未来的图景,并且是协助规划和决策的基础。本文以Chapecó河流生态廊道(Chapecó EC)地区为例,利用5个维度(物理/自然、经济、社会文化、技术和人口)的LULC地图和解释变量,确定了2036年LULC演变过程和动态模拟的主要驱动力。Chapecó EC由州政府于2010年创建,其目标是将自然保护与地方和区域发展相结合。在过去的二十年里,这个地区的天然草地和森林面积的损失平均是该州平均记录的五倍。基于基于人工神经网络的情景构建方法,基于3种社会经济情景(现状、增长和社会经济衰退)和2种区域干预选项(行动),阐述了6种预测情景。这包括一项基于维持当前LULC的行动,以及另一项自然保护性质的行动,即将森林和天然草地面积恢复到1990年的面积比例。结果表明:在经济和自然/物理驱动力的双重驱动下,在保持当前的土地利用价值的情况下,森林、牧场和农业面积呈增加趋势,而人工林和天然草地面积呈减少趋势;如果有保护行动,由于经济、技术和物理/自然驱动力,天然草地和牧场面积趋于增加,造林和农业面积趋于减少。这些趋势表明,自然草地的保护/恢复、鼓励保护主义农业实践与经济战略相结合以及农村部门的技术发展似乎形成了经济发展与生物多样性保护相结合的基础。
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Predictive Scenarios of LULC Changes Supporting Public Policies: The Case of Chapecó River Ecological Corridor, Santa Catarina/Brazil
The studies of spatial-temporal land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns, supported by future scenarios and simulation methods based on the assumption of natural socio-economic and territorial driving forces, allow us to go beyond an accurate diagnosis of the dynamics that have occurred so far, providing a picture of possible alternative futures, and are fundamental in assisting with the planning and policy-making in the territory. In this paper, we use LULC maps and explanatory variables aggregated in five dimensions (physical/natural, economic, sociocultural, technological, and demographic) to identify which are the main drinving forces in the evolution process and the simulation of LULC dynamics for 2036, using as a case study the Chapecó River ecological corridor (Chapecó EC) area. The Chapecó EC was created by the state government in 2010 with the goal of combining nature conservation with local and regional development. In this region, in the last two decades, the loss of areas of natural grassland and forest was on average five times higher than the average recorded in the state. Based on scenario-building methods using artificial neural networks, six predictive scenarios were elaborated, based on three socioeconomic scenarios (current conditions, growth, and socioeconomic recession) and two territorial intervention options (actions). This includes an action based on maintaining the current LULC, and another action of a conservationist nature with the recovery of forest and natural grassland areas to the proportions of areas found in 1990. The results indicate that if the current LULC is maintained, forest, pasture and agriculture areas tend to increase, while silviculture and natural grassland areas decrease, driven by economic and physical/natural driving forces. If there is a conservationist action, natural grassland and pasture areas tend to increase and silviculture and agriculture tend to lose area due to economic, technological, and physical/natural driving forces. These trends have revealed that the natural grassland preservation/restoration, the encouragement of conservationist agricultural practices combined with economic strategies, and the technological development of the rural sector seem to form the basis of economic development combined with biodiversity conservation.
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来源期刊
Land
Land ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-Nature and Landscape Conservation
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
23.10%
发文量
1927
期刊介绍: Land is an international and cross-disciplinary, peer-reviewed, open access journal of land system science, landscape, soil–sediment–water systems, urban study, land–climate interactions, water–energy–land–food (WELF) nexus, biodiversity research and health nexus, land modelling and data processing, ecosystem services, and multifunctionality and sustainability etc., published monthly online by MDPI. The International Association for Landscape Ecology (IALE), European Land-use Institute (ELI), and Landscape Institute (LI) are affiliated with Land, and their members receive a discount on the article processing charge.
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