一种具有非对称特性的备用碰撞严重性多类别建模方法

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2022.100218
Dawei Li , Mustafa F.M. Al-Mahamda , Yuchen Song , Siqi Feng , N.N. Sze
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引用次数: 2

摘要

logit模型及其变体已广泛应用于交通安全领域,特别是碰撞严重性分析领域。人们试图通过将其二进制形式推广到更宽松和不受约束的环境来克服逻辑的缺点和局限性。这些尝试包括添加形状参数,以便为概率分布增加更多的灵活性,同时以最少的计算量保持逻辑类型模型所提供的直观性。为基本logit提供额外参数的一种众所周知的形式是scobit模型。在本研究中,我们通过应用与广义logit形式相关的相同常规方法,探索了二元scobit模型的几种推广,主要是为了涵盖碰撞严重程度结果的多项性质。这些是多项式形式和序数形式。此外,我们利用混合分布来提供具有均值和方差异质性的特定于崩溃的随机参数。来自中国广东省的碰撞严重程度数据集被用来比较不同的形式。多项scobit模型在样本和样本外拟合方面提供了更好的结果,但代价是异质性形式的一些复杂性。其他形式没有显示出相对于逻辑形式的实质性或一致性优势。当应用于多个时间段时,所有模型都表现出时间不稳定性。
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An alternate crash severity multicategory modeling approach with asymmetric property

The logit model and its variations have been used extensively in the field of traffic safety in general, and crash severity analysis in particular. Attempts were made to overcome the logit's shortcomings and limitations by generalizing its binary form to a more relaxed and unconstrained setting. Such attempts include the addition of shape parameters in order to add more flexibility to the probability distribution, while maintaining the straightforwardness provided in the logit-type models, with the least computational effort. A well-known form that provides an extra parameter to the base logit is the scobit model. In this study, we explore several generalizations of the binary scobit model by applying the same conventional methods associated with the generalized logit forms, principally to cover the multinomial nature of crash severity outcomes. Those are the multinomial and the ordinal forms. Furtherly, we utilize mixed distributions to provide crash-specific random parameters with heterogeneity in means and variances. Crash severity dataset taken from Guangdong province, China, was used to compare the different forms. The multinomial scobit models provided better results in terms of sample and out-of-sample fit, with the cost of some complexity in the heterogeneous forms. Other forms did not show a substantial or consistent advantage over their logit counterparts. All models exhibit temporal instability when applied to multiple time periods.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
期刊最新文献
Determinants influencing alcohol-related two-vehicle crash severity: A multivariate Bayesian hierarchical random parameters correlated outcomes logit model Effects of sample size on pedestrian crash risk estimation from traffic conflicts using extreme value models Editorial Board A cross-comparison of different extreme value modeling techniques for traffic conflict-based crash risk estimation The role of posted speed limit on pedestrian and bicycle injury severities: An investigation into systematic and unobserved heterogeneities
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