Spatial aspects of urban population vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards

The research paper provides an assessment of spatial differences of vulnerability levels for the population Moscow to possible natural and man-made hazards, taking into account the actual population size and aspects of its intraday spatial movement. In addition to official statistical sources, we used data of mobile operators, which made it possible to characterize the localization of subscribers at a certain point in time with the maximal degree of reliability. Thus, it helped us to significantly correct and clarify the current concepts of the population in Moscow. According to the cluster analysis’ results, the potentially most vulnerable areas of Moscow were identified, and grouped into six types. The cluster analysis and typology were based on the characteristics of the density of the existing population, the regime of population fluctuations and the deviation of population indicators from the data of official statistics. In order to man-made risk assessment consideration of sanitary protection zones (SPZ) of industrial and utility facilities of the city have been added to the idea of ​​the population vulnerability. The results of the study show the inconsistency of existing approaches to risk assessment based on official social statistics. The paper also first presents the typology of urban areas of Moscow, which sheds light on the main features of its spatial structure in the context of potential vulnerability of citizens to natural and man-made emergencies.