地缘政治风险与能源市场

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI:10.1515/peps-2022-0033
Kristina Hudecova, M. Rajcaniova
{"title":"地缘政治风险与能源市场","authors":"Kristina Hudecova, M. Rajcaniova","doi":"10.1515/peps-2022-0033","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The fundamental aim of this paper is to test the symmetric and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on the five selected prices of energy commodities, consisting of coal, crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, during the period 2 January 2020–29 July 2022 by application of linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Moreover, we also study the impact of anticipated financial volatility on energy commodities. Our results suggest that, over the long term, there is no linear relationship between geopolitical risk, financial volatility, and energy prices. On the other hand, we find statistically significant asymmetrical effects of geopolitical risk and financial volatility on crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil prices in the long and short run. We also identify that coal and natural gas prices do not respond to changes in geopolitical risk during the analysed period.","PeriodicalId":44635,"journal":{"name":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","volume":"29 1","pages":"171 - 187"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Geopolitical Risk and Energy Market\",\"authors\":\"Kristina Hudecova, M. Rajcaniova\",\"doi\":\"10.1515/peps-2022-0033\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract The fundamental aim of this paper is to test the symmetric and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on the five selected prices of energy commodities, consisting of coal, crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, during the period 2 January 2020–29 July 2022 by application of linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Moreover, we also study the impact of anticipated financial volatility on energy commodities. Our results suggest that, over the long term, there is no linear relationship between geopolitical risk, financial volatility, and energy prices. On the other hand, we find statistically significant asymmetrical effects of geopolitical risk and financial volatility on crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil prices in the long and short run. We also identify that coal and natural gas prices do not respond to changes in geopolitical risk during the analysed period.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44635,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy\",\"volume\":\"29 1\",\"pages\":\"171 - 187\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-0033\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"POLITICAL SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2022-0033","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要本文的基本目的是通过应用线性和非线性ARDL模型,检验2020年1月2日至2022年7月29日期间地缘政治风险对煤炭、原油、汽油、取暖油和天然气五种能源商品价格的对称和不对称影响。此外,我们还研究了预期的金融波动对能源商品的影响。我们的研究结果表明,从长期来看,地缘政治风险、金融波动和能源价格之间没有线性关系。另一方面,我们发现地缘政治风险和金融波动对原油、汽油和取暖油价格的长期和短期不对称影响具有统计学意义。我们还发现,在分析期间,煤炭和天然气价格对地缘政治风险的变化没有反应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Geopolitical Risk and Energy Market
Abstract The fundamental aim of this paper is to test the symmetric and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on the five selected prices of energy commodities, consisting of coal, crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, during the period 2 January 2020–29 July 2022 by application of linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Moreover, we also study the impact of anticipated financial volatility on energy commodities. Our results suggest that, over the long term, there is no linear relationship between geopolitical risk, financial volatility, and energy prices. On the other hand, we find statistically significant asymmetrical effects of geopolitical risk and financial volatility on crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil prices in the long and short run. We also identify that coal and natural gas prices do not respond to changes in geopolitical risk during the analysed period.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
10.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: The journal accepts rigorous, non-technical papers especially in research methods in peace science, but also regular papers dealing with all aspects of the peace science field, from pure abstract theory to practical applied research. As a guide to topics: - Arms Control and International Security - Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Studies - Behavioral Studies - Conflict Analysis and Management - Cooperation, Alliances and Games - Crises and War Studies - Critical Economic Aspects of the Global Crises - Deterrence Theory - Empirical and Historical Studies on the Causes of War - Game, Prospect and Related Theory - Harmony and Conflict - Hierarchy Theory
期刊最新文献
Investigating Time-Varying Causality Between Military Spending and Macroeconomic Indicators in the United States An Empirical Investigation on the Determinants of International Migration Determinants of Military Spending in Africa: Do Institutions Matter? Connectedness Among Geopolitical Risk, Inflation, Currency Values, and Exports by TVP-VAR Analysis: A Worldwide Perspective The European Union and Achieving Peace in Ukraine
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1