Spatial clustering of fighting during civil wars: insights from Syria

ABSTRACT Quantitative research demonstrates that fighting clusters in space during civil wars, and that communities will be more likely to take up arms if they are located close to one or more other communities that are already engaged in combat. Yet the proposed explanations for such spatial clustering remain inadequate. Existing studies posit the importance of the dispersion of government resources, logistical connections among combatants, asymmetries of information and an assortment of negative externalities. Developments in the Syrian civil war indicate that only the second and fourth of these arguments look promising, and that threats to community security seem much more pertinent.