苏门答腊大逆冲带五大震源段地震活动性分析

IF 0.8 Q4 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.5459/bnzsee.1555
J. Rizal, Agus Yodi Gunawan, Sapto W. Indratno, I. Meilano
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引用次数: 0

摘要

苏门答腊巨型逆冲带有五个主要震源,即亚齐-安达曼、尼亚斯-西莫鲁、明打威-西比路、明打威-巴盖和恩加诺段。本文通过构造板块运动的未观测过程研究,对这五个板块进行地震活动分析,该研究分为两种情况:五个板块中的每一个独立(案例1),以及两个相邻的板块(案例2)。为此,应用了两种特定类型的隐马尔可夫模型(hmm),即泊松- hmm和copula - hmm,用于处理未观测过程问题。在实践中,使用的数据是1971年至2018年发生的震级为bbbb4.6的主震年频率。这些数据是通过计算聚类过程和估计特定地震目录的完整程度而获得的。由于数据集的不完全性,采用期望最大化算法对两种hmm的参数进行估计。结果表明,对于Case 1,拟合5个片段数据的模型为3-state Poisson-HMM。在这种情况下,这三种状态代表了与构造板块运动的动态水平相对应的地震活动速率。此外,在案例2中,具有nias - simmeulue的亚齐-安达曼选择的模型是2状态Gumbel Copula-HMM。同时,对于剩下的三组,即Nias-Simeulue与Mentawai-Siberut、Mentawai-Siberut与Mentawai-Pagai、Mentawai-Pagai与Enggano,合适的模型分别是高斯、Gumbel和Frank Copulas。在这种情况下,状态数代表两个相邻段的地震活动关联,对应于两个相邻构造板块动力学的关联水平。
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Seismic activity analysis of five major earthquake source segments in the Sumatra megathrust zone
The Sumatra megathrust zone has five major earthquake sources, namely the Aceh-Andaman, Nias-Simeulue, Mentawai-Siberut, Mentawai-Pagai, and Enggano segments. This paper provides seismic activity analysis in these five segments via an unobserved process study of tectonic plate movements, which is conducted in two cases: each of the five segments independently (Case 1), and a pair of two adjacent segments (Case 2). To do this, two specific types of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), i.e., Poisson-HMMs and Copula-HMMs, dealing with unobserved process issues, are applied. In practice, the data used is the annual frequency of mainshock earthquakes with a magnitude of >4.6 that occurred from 1971 to 2018. This data is obtained by working out the declustering process and estimating the magnitude of completeness from a particular earthquake catalogue. Due to the incompleteness of the data sets, the parameters of the two HMMs are estimated using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Results show that for Case 1, the model that fits the data for each of the five segments is the 3-state Poisson-HMM. The three states, in this instance, stand for the rates of seismic activity that correspond to the dynamic level of tectonic plate movements. Furthermore, in Case 2, the selected model for the Aceh-Andaman with Nias-Simeulue is the 2-state Gumbel Copula-HMM. Meanwhile, for the three groups remaining, namely Nias-Simeulue with Mentawai-Siberut, Mentawai-Siberut with Mentawai-Pagai, and Mentawai-Pagai with Enggano, the appropriate models are Gaussian, Gumbel, and Frank Copulas, respectively. In this case, the number of states represents the seismic activity association of two adjacent segments that corresponds to the association level of two adjacent tectonic plate dynamics.
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CiteScore
2.50
自引率
17.60%
发文量
14
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