开发一个人工神经网络(ANN)模型来预测叙利亚的建设项目绩效

Rana Maya, Bassam Hassan, Ammar Hassan
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本文的目的是使建设项目团队的成员了解他们必须密切监控的因素,以完成项目所需的性能。因此,本研究旨在建立基于上述因素的人工神经网络(ANN)模型来预测建设项目绩效。根据从业者的意见,确定了影响项目绩效的一组(34)因素。人工神经网络被设计用来使用七个输入来预测项目绩效模型,这些输入代表了六个被优先考虑为最具影响因素的因素。该模型显示影响项目绩效的因素如下:项目各方的协调和承诺(30.9%),进度估计(25.4%),项目团队的经验和可用性(24.5%),以及高级管理层的支持(14.3%)。由于该模型的预测精度为96.1%,误差为3.9%,因此我们设计了一个基于先前影响因素的项目绩效预测模型。
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Develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict construction projects performance in Syria

The purpose of this paper is to enable members of the construction project team to understand the factors which they must closely monitor to complete the project with the required performance. Therefore, the research aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict construction project performance based on the above factors.

A group of (34) factors that affect the performance of the project has been identified based on practitioners' opinions. ANN was designed to predict the project performance model using seven inputs that represent six factors that were prioritized as the most influencing factors. The model showed the factors that affect project performance as follows: Coordination and commitment of project parties (30.9%), Schedule estimate (25.4%), Project team experience and availability (24.5 %), and Support from senior management (14.3%).

We concluded to design a model that predicts project performance based on previous influencing factors, as this model has a prediction accuracy of 96.1 % and an error of 3.9 %.

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来源期刊
Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences
Journal of King Saud University, Engineering Sciences Chemical Engineering-Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
63 days
期刊介绍: Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences (JKSUES) is a peer-reviewed journal published quarterly. It is hosted and published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University. JKSUES is devoted to a wide range of sub-fields in the Engineering Sciences and JKSUES welcome articles of interdisciplinary nature.
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