基于人工神经网络的区域水资源承载力预测方法

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Earth Sciences Research Journal Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI:10.15446/ESRJ.V25N2.81615
Shi Chaoyang, Zhen Zhang
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引用次数: 4

摘要

为了更好地预测水资源承载力,指导社会经济活动,提出了一种基于人工神经网络的区域水资源承载力预测方法。选择肇州县作为水资源承载力预测研究区,对其自然地理特征、社会经济、水资源状况进行了探讨。根据区域水资源数量和利用特点及评价重点,构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,评价水资源承载力的重要性和相关性。水资源承载能力压力程度分为5个等级。根据承载力评价标准,构建了人工智能BP神经网络模型。根据该地区水资源承载力的主要影响因素,利用神经网络模型和影响因素数据,通过权重计算和收敛迭代得到水资源承载力等级,实现水资源承载力预测。研究结果表明,该网络模型能够满足精度要求。预测结果与实际数据拟合程度较高,表明人类智能在水资源承载力预测中可以获得准确的预测结果。
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A prediction method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on artificial neural network
To better predict the water resources carrying capacity and guide the social and economic activities, a prediction method of regional water resources carrying capacity is proposed based on an artificial neural network. Zhaozhou County is selected as the research area of water resources carrying capacity prediction, and its natural geographical characteristics, social economy, and water resources situation are explored. According to the regional water resources quantity and utilization characteristics and evaluation emphasis, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity is constructed to evaluate the importance and correlation of water resource carrying capacity. The pressure degree of water resources carrying capacity is divided into five grades. According to the evaluation standard of bearing capacity, the artificial intelligence BP neural network model is constructed. Based on the main impact factors of water resources carrying capacity in this area, the water resources carrying capacity grade is obtained by weight calculation and convergence iteration by using neural network model and influence factor data to realize the prediction of water resources carrying capacity. The research results show that the network model can meet the demand for precision. The prediction results have a high degree of fit with the actual data, indicating that human intelligence can obtain accurate prediction results in water resources carrying capacity prediction.
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来源期刊
Earth Sciences Research Journal
Earth Sciences Research Journal 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: ESRJ publishes the results from technical and scientific research on various disciplines of Earth Sciences and its interactions with several engineering applications. Works will only be considered if not previously published anywhere else. Manuscripts must contain information derived from scientific research projects or technical developments. The ideas expressed by publishing in ESRJ are the sole responsibility of the authors. We gladly consider manuscripts in the following subject areas: -Geophysics: Seismology, Seismic Prospecting, Gravimetric, Magnetic and Electrical methods. -Geology: Volcanology, Tectonics, Neotectonics, Geomorphology, Geochemistry, Geothermal Energy, ---Glaciology, Ore Geology, Environmental Geology, Geological Hazards. -Geodesy: Geodynamics, GPS measurements applied to geological and geophysical problems. -Basic Sciences and Computer Science applied to Geology and Geophysics. -Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. -Oceanography. -Planetary Sciences. -Engineering: Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Engineering, Geological Engineering, Geotechnics.
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