The Road to Retention Passes through First Year Academic Performance: A Meta-Analytic Path Analysis of Academic Performance and Persistence

ABSTRACT This meta-analytic path analysis presents evidence that first-year academic performance (FYAP), measured by first-year grade point average (FYGPA) plays the major role in determining second-year student retention and that socioeconomic status (SES), measured by parental income, plays a negligible role. Based on large sample data used in a previous study, we conducted additional analyses that included corrections for measurement error and created path models using precollege academic achievement, measured by ACT Composite scores and high school GPA (HSGPA), and SES to predict FYAP and then second-year retention. Precollege academic performances had direct effects on FYAP, and FYAP fully mediated their effects on second-year retention. SES did not contribute to the prediction of FYAP, and it had only a trivial effect on second-year retention. The results of this study point to the criticality of FYAP, and supporting first-year student academic success may serve as the central vehicle for retention efforts.