尼日利亚洪灾死亡人数评估

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-21-0168.1
T. Ologunorisa, A. Eludoyin, Bola Lateef
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引用次数: 1

摘要

由于数据库存和管理不善,洪水造成的死亡是许多发展中国家报告较少的洪水灾害影响之一。这项研究的具体目标是评估非洲人口最多的国家尼日利亚洪水死亡人数的空间和时间变化。该研究探索了国家(尼日利亚)气象和应急管理机构以及科罗拉多大学博尔德分校达特茅斯洪水观测站的可用数据集,并用尼日利亚报纸的零散报道补充了这些数据集,以实现既定目标。该研究采用了统计和地理信息分析相结合的方法,表明尼日利亚大部分地区容易受到洪水的影响,因为主要气候的性质往往导致“中等”至“高”降雨强度(即24小时内降雨量分别为38.1–50.1毫米或>50.1毫米)、定居点规划/土地利用和土地覆盖管理不足,以及大坝溃坝。对洪水-死亡关系频率的分析表明,1985年至2017年间,与洪水病例相比,洪水死亡人数增加了4.7%。这项研究用报纸和其他一些未经同行审查的文件(特别是相关机构的报告)提供的信息补充了研究结果,并揭示了该国需要更好的洪水信息管理系统,特别是因为国家数据库和DFO记录不一样。该研究得出的结论是,洪水死亡人数正在增加,但报告很少。因此,它建议改进该国洪水和其他灾害及其死亡人数的信息系统。本研究的目的是揭示一个典型的撒哈拉以南非洲国家的洪水灾害信息状况。这一点很重要,因为全球可持续减灾规划需要有关洪水灾害死亡人数分布和趋势的信息。我们的研究结果为理解洪水灾害的分布和相关因素以及非正式(报纸)来源对相关记录清单的贡献提供了指导。
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An Evaluation of Flood Fatalities in Nigeria
Flood-induced fatalities are among the more poorly reported effects of flood disasters in many developing countries because of poor data inventory and management. Specific objectives of this study are to assess the spatial and temporal variations in flood fatalities in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. The study explored available datasets from the National (Nigerian) Meteorological and Emergency Management Agencies as well as those from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) at the University of Colorado Boulder and complemented those with scattered reports from Nigerian newspapers to achieve the stated objectives. Using a mix of statistical and geographical information analysis approaches, the study showed that most of Nigeria is vulnerable to flood, given the nature of the dominant climate that often results in “medium” to “high” rainfall intensity (i.e., rainfall = 38.1–50.1 mm or > 50.1 mm in 24 h, respectively), inadequate settlement planning/land-use and land-cover management, and dam failure. Analysis of the frequency of the flood–fatality relationship indicates an increase in flood fatalities by 4.7% relative to flood cases between 1985 and 2017. The study complemented the results with information from newspapers and some other non-peer-reviewed documents (especially reports from relevant agencies) and revealed the need for a better flood information management system in the country, especially since the national database and DFO records were not the same. The study concluded that flood fatalities are on the increase but are poorly reported. It thus recommends improved information systems for flood and other disasters and their fatalities in the country. The purpose of this study is to reveal the state of information on flood disasters in a typical sub-Saharan African country. This is important because information about the distribution and trend of fatalities associated with flood disasters is required for sustainable mitigation planning globally. Our results provide a guide to understanding the distribution and associated factors of flood disasters as well as the contributions of informal (newspaper) sources to the inventory of relevant records.
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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