大流行生命周期的预防和控制系统

IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH 安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002
Chenyang Wang, Rui Ba, Ranpeng Wang, Hui Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

针对2019年新型冠状病毒病大流行的复杂性和策略的滞后性,提出了一种不同流行阶段特征与相应策略的匹配方法。比较了传染病传播的经典扩散动力学模型。此外,选择Bass扩散模型来研究流行病的更多特征,例如区域内和外部感染率的多样性。此后,对-à-vis大流行生命周期的经典划分方法进行了改进。提出了一种具体方法,通过将大流行分为更多阶段来描绘更详细的特征。其次,具体阐述了四级疫情防控措施体系。每项措施的适用阶段和战略效力已纳入大流行生命周期的不同阶段。最后,运用匹配方法对疫情在城市蔓延和重大事件两例进行了分析。研究结果为疫情后高峰期匹配方法的有效性提供了一定的参考。
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Preventive and control system for the life cycle of a pandemic

Herein, a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented, aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies. The classical diffusion dynamic models of the epidemic spread are compared. Furthermore, the Bass diffusion model is selected to study more characteristics of an epidemic, such as the diversities in regional internal and external infection rates. Thereafter, the classical division method vis-à-vis a pandemic life cycle is improved. A specific approach is proposed to portray more detailed characteristics of the pandemic by dividing it into more phases. Next, a four-level epidemic prevention and control measure system is concretized. The applicable phases and strategic effectiveness of each measure are integrated into the different phases of the pandemic life cycle. Finally, the matching method is applied to analyze two cases of the spread of the outbreak in cities and significant events. The findings provide a certain reference for the effectiveness of the matching method in the post-peak epidemic period.

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来源期刊
安全科学与韧性(英文)
安全科学与韧性(英文) Management Science and Operations Research, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Safety Research
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
72 days
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