使用简单的水平衡水库模型评估气候变化对中里奥格兰德州地表水供应的影响

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Earth Interactions Pub Date : 2022-07-14 DOI:10.1175/ei-d-21-0025.1
Robyn N. Holmes, A. Mayer, D. Gutzler, Luis Garnica Chavira
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引用次数: 5

摘要

中河是该地区重要的灌溉水源。气候变化正在影响区域水文,并可能给本已捉襟襟肘的供水系统带来额外压力。为了深入了解气候变化对水库蓄水的水文影响,采用一个简单的水平衡模型对美国新墨西哥州南部的象丘-卡巴洛水库系统进行了模拟。CMIP5全球气候模式的97个气候模拟所产生的水文输入与一个地表水文模式耦合,对水平衡模式产生了强迫作用。结果表明,与过去50年(1971-2020年)相比,未来50年(2021-2070年)水库释放满足农业水权分配的年数百分比将减少。该模型还预测了多年干旱事件的增加,这将阻碍水库管理策略以保持高储水量。在大多数情况下,与来自水库表面的当地蒸发和降水的变化相比,来自遥远上游融雪的水库流入的变化预估对水库储水量和水库下游的可用水量的影响更大。
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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model
The Middle Rio Grande is a vital source of water for irrigation in the region. Climate change is impacting regional hydrology and is likely to put additional stress on a water supply that is already stretched thin. To gain insight on the hydrologic effects of climate change on reservoir storage, a simple water balance model was used to simulate the Elephant Butte-Caballo reservoir system (Southern New Mexico, USA). The water balance model was forced by hydrologic inputs generated by 97 climate simulations derived from CMIP5 Global Climate Models, coupled to a surface hydrologic model. Results suggest the percentage of years that reservoir releases satisfy agricultural water rights allocations over the next 50 years (2021-2070) will decrease compared to the past 50 years (1971-2020). The modeling also projects an increase in multi-year drought events that hinder reservoir management strategies to maintain high storage levels. In most cases, changes in reservoir inflows from distant upstream snowmelt is projected to have a greater influence on reservoir storage and water availability downstream of the reservoirs, compared to changes in local evaporation and precipitation from the reservoir surfaces.
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来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
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