估计平均说谎率及其全部分布的一种方法

Ellen Garbarino, R. Slonim, M. Villeval
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引用次数: 15

摘要

研究个人作弊的可能性需要对不诚实行为进行有效的统计测量。我们开发了一种简单的实证方法来测量和比较研究中和研究之间的说谎行为,以纠正抽样误差。当代理人私下观察随机过程(例如压模辊)的结果并可能误报他们观察到的结果时,这种方法估计谎言的完全分布。它提供了对整个分布的平均值和置信区间(提供了说谎人数比例的下限和上限)的精确估计,允许进行现有方法通常无法获得的大量统计推断。
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A method to estimate mean lying rates and their full distribution
Studying the likelihood that individuals cheat requires a valid statistical measure of dishonesty. We develop an easy empirical method to measure and compare lying behavior within and across studies to correct for sampling errors. This method estimates the full distribution of lying when agents privately observe the outcome of a random process (e.g., die roll) and can misreport what they observed. It provides a precise estimate of the mean and confidence interval (offering lower and upper bounds on the proportion of people lying) over the full distribution, allowing for a vast range of statistical inferences not generally available with the existing methods.
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