以防御性规划方法确定迁都的必要性

IF 0.8 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis Pub Date : 2022-07-15 DOI:10.37043/jura.2022.14.2.5
N. Zali, M. Mousavi, H. Hekmatnia, I. Ebrahimzadeh, Ali BAGHERI KASHKOLI
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是通过防御性规划方法确定首都搬迁的必要性及其对经济、社会和环境方面的影响。数据收集工具是统计文件和调查表。调查的指数包括26个人口、经济、环境、基础设施、健康和安全防御指数。为了分析数据,使用了Moran的空间自相关和Ripley的K函数的统计方法。结果表明,德黑兰作为首都,人口、经济和政治层面的集中,加上洪水和地震等自然威胁和危机,导致了发展不足和环境问题。此外,该国各省的服务分配不均,首都的服务和设施集中,这增加了将首都搬迁作为一项战略的必要性。在这一战略中,政府应该更加关注国家的宏观经济,特别是人均GDP,包括各省的长期预测和发展计划,因为只有宏观经济稳定才能使全国各地的经济更加稳定。在这种情况下,今后有关迁都的任何政策都将更加容易,国家的经济和政治稳定也不会受到干扰。
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NECESSITY DETERMINATION OF RELOCATING THE CAPITAL CITY WITH A DEFENSIVE PLANNING APPROACH
The purpose of this study is to determine the necessity of moving the capital and its impact on economic, social, and environmental aspects with a defensive planning approach. Data collection tools are statistical documents and questionnaires. Indices examined contain 26 demographic, economic, environmental, infrastructure, health, and security-defense indices. To analyze the data, the statistical methods of spatial autocorrelation of Moran and Ripley's K function were used. The results show that centralization in the demographic, economic, and political dimensions of Tehran as capital city, along with the natural threats and crises such as floods and earthquakes, has led to underdevelopment and environmental issues. In addition, the unequal distribution of services in the provinces of the country and the centralization of services and facilities in the capital has raised the need to move the capital as a strategy. In this strategy, the government should pay more attention to the country's macroeconomics, especially the per capita GDP, including as well long-term forecasts and development plans for the provinces because only macroeconomic stability can lead to more stable economics in all parts of the country. Under such circumstances, any policy regarding the relocation of the capital will be easier in the future, and the economic and political stability of the country will not be disrupted.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
28.60%
发文量
16
审稿时长
16 weeks
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