俄罗斯生育率的当代趋势和国家支持措施的影响

V. Arkhangel'skiĭ, Iu.V. Zin’kina, A. Korotaev, S. G. Shul’gin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2007年后,俄罗斯的生育率大幅上升,当时出台了新的国家措施来支持有孩子的家庭。本文分析了这一增长的结构和促成生育率增长的因素。2007年,第二胎及以后的生育取得了最大的进展,而第一胎的生育率几乎保持不变。从2007年初开始实施的人口政策措施的效果,可以根据统计计算,在总生育率中增加0.259个,即二胎及以上生育占35.4%,所有生育占17.1%。因此,有理由谈论生育率指标的积极变化,不仅是对假设的几代人,而且对实际的几代人。
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Contemporary Trends in Russia’s Fertility Rate and the Impact of State Support Measures
Russia’s fertility rate jumped after 2007, when new state measures were introduced to support families with children. This article analyzes the structure of this increase and factors that have contributed to a growth in the fertility rate. In 2007, the greatest gains were made in terms of second and subsequent births, while the fertility rate for first births has remained virtually unchanged. The effectiveness of demographic policy measures taken since early 2007 in regard to the fertility rate can be evaluated on the basis of statistical calculations as an additional amount of 0.259 of the total fertility rate, which amounts to 35.4 percent for second and subsequent births and 17.1 percent for all births. Thus, there are grounds to speak about positive shifts in fertility rate indicators not just for hypothetical generations, but also for real generations.
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