Conservation of forest cover in Mesoamerican biosphere reserves is associated with the increase of local non-farm occupation

Protected areas can prevent forest loss, but their effects on forest fragmentation and forest regrowth are poorly understood. Furthermore, the importance of protected areas in shaping these forest spatial changes may depend on different socioeconomic drivers (e.g. population size, distance to cities, proportion of local people working in non-farm occupation), but the empirical evidence on such dependence is very scarce. Here, we used contra factual technics to assess whether biosphere reserves (n = 19) in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot can reduce forest loss and fragmentation and promote forest regrowth during the period 2000–2020. We used satellite imagery and governmental data to assess the socioeconomic factors driving these changes. Particularly, using multimodel inference analysis, we tested whether higher non-farm occupation, combined with low demographic pressures, reduces forest loss and fragmentation and promotes forest regrowth. We found that reserves reduce forest loss and preserve less-fragmented configurations, however, they neither reduce fragmentation rate nor promote forest regrowth. Forest loss rate inside the reserves decreased as non-farm occupation enhanced and the density of rural settlements decreased. Therefore, promoting higher opportunities in non-farm economic activities and planning rural settlements distribution around reserves could help to increase the effectiveness of reserves for forest conservation.