‘The outcome of a historical process set in motion in 1991’: explaining the failure of incumbency advantage in Zambia’s 2021 election

ABSTRACT This article uses a longitudinal comparative perspective to analyse Zambia's 2021 transfer of power. The article takes the previous elections since the transition to multi-party democracy in 1991 as a body in which patterns of incumbency failure can be seen. It identifies five pervasive patterns that seem present in all polls that have resulted in leadership change or turnovers: a struggling economy with a clear blame orientation, a unified opposition, a depoliticised military, a rather impartial electoral commission, and collective memory of incumbent defeat. The importance of each of these factors varies over time, but collectively they shape election outcomes in decisive ways. Drawing on interviews and newspaper sources, I apply these variables to the 2021 election that resulted in the defeat of President Edgar Lungu and the victory of the opposition candidate. I argue that the repeated failure of incumbency advantage in Zambia reflects the institutionalisation of democratic processes, notably embodied in competitive elections, an increasingly independent electoral commission, effective opposition parties that can devise robust campaign strategies, and a military that continues to choose non- intervention whenever an incumbent is defeated. More broadly, I demonstrate why alternation is becoming routine while the power of incumbency is in decline.