Multi-period Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis (CEPA) for reducing emissions in the Trinidad and Tobago power generation sector

Abstract Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) aims to reduce the Business-As-Usual (BAU) emissions in its power generation sector by 28.7 MtCO2-e by 2030 according to its National Determined Contribution (NDC). Based on current published data, there appears to be a gap in quantifying the activity level and carbon intensity of planned actions to meet this target. Through two scenarios, this study explored the impacts of power plant dispatch optimization and new zero-carbon energy additions for T&T through adaptations of a widely used method called Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis (CEPA). A national grid emission factor (GEF) of 0.56 MtCO2-e/TWh was determined using an internationally accepted methodology from gathered power plant data. The GEF was discretized to project a BAU case to benchmark both scenarios. Scenario 1 (S1) determined T&T would achieve 8% of the NDC target if the existing supply is optimized in the years 2022 to 2030 through the compound pinch points. To achieve the target, Scenario 2 (S2) determined that at least 47% of T&T’s grid energy needs to come from zero-emission carbon sources by 2022. This would equate to required capacities of 2,169 MW of solar photovoltaic or 1,549 MW of onshore wind using the most recent published capacity factors, and a decrease in the BAU GEF by 43%.