Comparison of Estimated and Real COVID-19 Cases and Deaths for 45 Days

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the new type of coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China at the end of 2019, and spread all over the world in a very short time The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic due to its rapid spread and lack of effective vaccination, immunization and treatment In this study, we aimed to make a retrospective evaluation of forty-five days of COVID-19 cases and deaths simulated by the modified mathematical model which was previously established and published by us 30 days and 45 days of COVID-19 cases and deaths which were estimated by our modified mathematical model were compared to the real cases and deaths in Turkey since 15 03 2020 The COVID-19 cases increased to a significant level on 20 03 2020 in Turkey The modified mathematical modeling results' estimation accuracy remained above 90% until 13 04 2020 This rate was 78 40% on 28 04 2020 The modified mathematical modeling estimation for the COVID-19 deaths started on 20 03 2020 because the number of deaths were then significant enough for estimation with the modified mathematical model The estimation accuracy for the number of deaths was 100% with a value of 37 on 23 March 2020, and after that, it had always remained above 90% until 13 04 2020 Finally, it was 66 08% on 28 04 2020 The estimation accuracies of the modified mathematical model about the COVID-19 cases in Turkey for 30 days and 45 days were above 90% and 78% respectively The estimation accuracies of the modified mathematical model about the COVID- 19 deaths in Turkey for the 30-day and 45-day periods were above 90% and 66%, respectively This result suggests that the modified mathematical model is available for estimating the course of disease outbreaks and pandemics The model should be developed through future studies, which will improve its estimation accuracy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Clinical & Experimental Investigations is the property of Modestum Publications and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )