论俄罗斯的经济安全与社会经济发展战略

V. B. Daskovsky
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摘要

摘要2017年5月13日,俄罗斯政府批准了《至2030年俄罗斯联邦经济安全战略》。本文探讨了《战略》试图回答的一个主要问题:如何实现和维护俄罗斯的经济安全?俄罗斯目前面临的一个主要问题是缺乏政府对经济的监管。我们考虑到缺乏监管的一些负面后果,特别是大规模去工业化。我们描述了去工业化的几个原因(例如,私有化失败和缺乏投资),并提出了政府监管可以促进国民经济再工业化的几种方式(资源财富再投资和创造长期贷款)。最后,我们认为,为了扭转负面经济趋势,俄罗斯必须采取一项在12年内(2019-2030年)完成的两阶段战略,这需要调动主要的财政和组织资源。第一个六年阶段(2019–2024)涵盖对现有低利润和负利润企业的大规模创新重建,第二阶段(2025–2030)将创建大型现代企业。这一十二年战略的主要目标是将俄罗斯经济纳入工业化国家的轨道,并利用这一时期积累的创新体系,开启以工业化为特征的国家企业资本主义的新阶段。
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On the Strategy for the Economic Security and Socioeconomic Development of Russia
ABSTRACT On May 13, 2017, the “Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation up to 2030” was ratified by the Russian government. This article considers the major question the “Strategy” tries to answer: How can Russia’s economic security by achieved and maintained? One major problem facing Russia today is the lack of government regulation of the economy. We consider some of the negative consequences of the lack of regulation, in particular massive deindustrialization. We describe several causes of deindustrialization (e.g., failed privatization and the absence of investment) and propose several ways that government regulation can facilitate the reindustrialization of the national economy (reinvesting resource wealth and creating long-term loans). Finally, we argue that to reverse negative economic trends, Russia must adopt a two-phase strategy to be completed in twelve years (2019–2030), which necessitates the mobilization of major financial and organizational resources. The first six-year phase (2019–2024) covers the massive innovative reconstruction of existing low-profit and negative-profit enterprises, and the second stage (2025–2030) will create large modern enterprises. The main goal for this twelve-year strategy is to bring the Russian economy into the orbit of the industrialized countries and to use the system of innovation accumulated during this time to start the new stage of state-corporate capitalism characterized by industrialization.
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