没有未来的预测*

IF 1.1 2区 历史学 Q1 HISTORY History and Theory Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI:10.1111/hith.12269
Sun-ha Hong
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引用次数: 4

摘要

现代性将开放未来的理想公式奉为神圣:一种人类决心的承诺,同时也是一种控制的命令。今天,这个可规划的未来的旗帜是由技术支撑的。所谓的客观、中立、免于意识形态的幻灭,对技术变革的信念充斥着历史未来的当前视野。然而,我认为,这正是当今科技未来实现封闭和千篇一律霸权的方式。特别是,越来越多的人强调预测是人工智能解决所有社会问题的关键,这构成了宗教研究所称的宇宙图:将控制事实和价值观如何相互关联的模型普遍化,提供一个共同和规范的参考点。在预测范式中,社会问题只能被设想为计算控制的对象——这种控制永远无法实现,但会以一种永恒的延期和循环的方式持续存在。我展示了这种技术未来是如何维持的,不是通过对未来事件做出准确的预测,而是通过对预测时间的仪式化展示。
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PREDICTIONS WITHOUT FUTURES*

Modernity held sacred the aspirational formula of the open future: a promise of human determination that doubles as an injunction to control. Today, the banner of this plannable future is borne by technology. Allegedly impersonal, neutral, and exempt from disillusionment with ideology, belief in technological change saturates the present horizon of historical futures. Yet I argue that this is exactly how today's technofutures enact a hegemony of closure and sameness. In particular, the growing emphasis on prediction as AI's skeleton key to all social problems constitutes what religious studies calls cosmograms: universalizing models that govern how facts and values relate to each other, providing a common and normative point of reference. In a predictive paradigm, social problems are made conceivable only as objects of calculative control—control that can never be fulfilled but that persists as an eternally deferred and recycled horizon. I show how this technofuture is maintained not so much by producing literally accurate predictions of future events but through ritualized demonstrations of predictive time.

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来源期刊
History and Theory
History and Theory Multiple-
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
9.10%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: History and Theory leads the way in exploring the nature of history. Prominent international thinkers contribute their reflections in the following areas: critical philosophy of history, speculative philosophy of history, historiography, history of historiography, historical methodology, critical theory, and time and culture. Related disciplines are also covered within the journal, including interactions between history and the natural and social sciences, the humanities, and psychology.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information HOW SHOULD HISTORIANS EMPATHIZE? “TESTIMONY STOPS WHERE HISTORY BEGINS”: UNDERSTANDING AND ETHICS IN RELATION TO HISTORICAL AND PRACTICAL PASTS A HOUSE WITH EXPOSED BEAMS: INQUIRY-BASED LEARNING AND HISTORIANS’ ETHICAL RESPONSIBILITIES AS SCHOLAR-TEACHERS OPEN LETTERS IN CLOSED SOCIETIES: THE VALUES OF HISTORIANS UNDER ATTACK
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