气候变暖可能削弱原始森林的稳定机制

IF 7.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Ecological Monographs Pub Date : 2022-01-27 DOI:10.1002/ecm.1508
Sara J. Germain, James A. Lutz
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引用次数: 4

摘要

植物竞争可能会随着气候变暖而加剧,但这种竞争是否会同样发生在同种和异种竞争中尚不清楚。竞争转移有可能引发群落变化,因为同种和异种负密度依赖的相对优势介导了物种共存的稳定机制。我们研究了一个成熟的温带森林,以评估气候在多个尺度上的直接和间接影响:物种个体、物种间关系和群落稳定机制。我们的耦合方法(1)量化了8年间28,913棵树木(3149例死亡)的竞争、气候水分亏缺、积雪和土壤湿度的相互作用对树木死亡率风险的依赖,然后(2)使用气候预测集合预测了2020 - 2100年同种和异种竞争的变化。我们预测,气候变暖将导致基础森林群落的不稳定,五种丰富树种中有四种的异种竞争强度将以更快的速度和更大的程度增加,而不是同种竞争,特别是在干燥的微生境上。建模表明,这些发现在2038年之后最为明显,届时预计积雪太小,无法改善干旱对竞争相互作用的影响。我们发现异种竞争比同种竞争对气候变暖更敏感,这可能表明生态系统功能即将丧失。越来越多的研究表明,干旱的间接影响占主导地位,但耦合的气候模型仍然没有考虑到变化的群落动态如何影响森林覆盖,进而破坏森林-气候的碳反馈。与我们的范例森林具有相同特征的生态系统——那些物种丰富度低,因此生物多样性保险效应有限的生态系统——可能同样容易受到气候介导的不稳定的影响。在这样的群落中,即使少数物种之间的异种竞争加剧,也更容易使群落不稳定,而无需求助于多余的物种。这项对被忽视但至关重要的群落变化机制的研究可以通过对一系列生态系统的研究来改进对气候变化后果的理解。
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Climate warming may weaken stabilizing mechanisms in old forests

Plant competition may intensify with climate warming, but whether this will occur equally for conspecific and heterospecific competition remains unknown. Competitive shifts have the potential to instigate community change because the relative strengths of conspecific and heterospecific negative density dependence mediate the stabilizing mechanisms underpinning species coexistence. We examined a mature temperate forest to assess both direct and indirect climate effects at multiple scales: individual species, interspecies relationships, and community stability mechanisms. Our coupled approach (1) quantified tree mortality risk dependence on the interactive effects of competition, climatic water deficit, snowpack, and soil moisture for 28,913 trees over 8 years (3149 mortalities), then (2) used a climate-projection ensemble to forecast changes in conspecific and heterospecific competition from 2020 to 2100. We predict that projected climate warming will destabilize the foundational forest community by increasing the strength of heterospecific competition at a greater rate and to a greater degree than conspecific competition for four of five abundant tree species, particularly on dry microsites. Modeling showed that these findings were most pronounced after the year 2038, at which point snowpacks were projected to be too small to ameliorate the effects of drought on competitive interactions. Our finding that heterospecific competition is more sensitive than conspecific competition to climate warming may indicate the impending loss of ecosystem functioning. We join the growing body of work showing a predominance of indirect drought effects, yet coupled climate models still fail to consider how changing community dynamics may impact forest cover and, in turn, disrupt forest–climate carbon feedbacks. Ecosystems sharing characteristics with our example forest—those with low species richness and therefore a limited biodiversity insurance effect—may be similarly vulnerable to climate-mediated destabilization. In such communities, increased heterospecific competition among even a small number of species can more easily destabilize communities without recourse from redundant species. This study of an overlooked but vital mechanism of community change can be adapted by research in a range of ecosystems to improve the understanding of climate change consequences.

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来源期刊
Ecological Monographs
Ecological Monographs 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The vision for Ecological Monographs is that it should be the place for publishing integrative, synthetic papers that elaborate new directions for the field of ecology. Original Research Papers published in Ecological Monographs will continue to document complex observational, experimental, or theoretical studies that by their very integrated nature defy dissolution into shorter publications focused on a single topic or message. Reviews will be comprehensive and synthetic papers that establish new benchmarks in the field, define directions for future research, contribute to fundamental understanding of ecological principles, and derive principles for ecological management in its broadest sense (including, but not limited to: conservation, mitigation, restoration, and pro-active protection of the environment). Reviews should reflect the full development of a topic and encompass relevant natural history, observational and experimental data, analyses, models, and theory. Reviews published in Ecological Monographs should further blur the boundaries between “basic” and “applied” ecology. Concepts and Synthesis papers will conceptually advance the field of ecology. These papers are expected to go well beyond works being reviewed and include discussion of new directions, new syntheses, and resolutions of old questions. In this world of rapid scientific advancement and never-ending environmental change, there needs to be room for the thoughtful integration of scientific ideas, data, and concepts that feeds the mind and guides the development of the maturing science of ecology. Ecological Monographs provides that room, with an expansive view to a sustainable future.
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