经济变化情景下的山洪风险评估

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Weather Climate and Society Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI:10.1175/wcas-d-21-0141.1
Liutong Chen, Qian Li, Yingjun Xu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

山洪灾害对中国东南部地区的社会经济因素构成持续的威胁。研究分析了5种经济情景(SSP1、SSP2、SSP3、SSP4和SSP5)下盐溪河流域山洪暴发风险变化。将水文和水动力模型与实地考察相结合,建立了区域山洪灾害评价模型。利用产业结构和土地利用数据对区域风险敞口进行空间化处理,并以资产价值代表区域风险敞口。利用不同行业对山洪暴发的响应,建立了受经济变化影响的山洪风险评估。研究结果阐明了经济因素是如何驱动山洪暴发风险变化的。2019年盐溪河流域山洪暴发周期为150年。2019年,山洪影响了5.04%的流域;淹没深度集中在2.00 m以下,造成经济损失5.5亿元。随着经济的变化,山洪暴发风险增加91.34% (SSP2-当前经济发展水平)和94.39% (ssp5 -极端经济发展水平)。在流域尺度上强调经济发展与灾害管理的平衡;此外,该方法可为缺乏统计信息的易发地区的风险评估提供参考。
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Flash Flood Risk Assessment in the context of Economic Change Scenarios
Flash flood disasters pose a constant threat to socioeconomic factors in southeastern China. This study analyzes the risk change of flash floods in the Yantanxi River Basin, southeastern China, under five economic scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5). We built a regional flash flood hazard assessment model by combining hydrological and hydrodynamic models with field work. Asset value was used to represent regional exposure, which was spatialized using data from industrial structure and land use. Flash flood risk assessment influenced by economic change was developed using different industry responses to flash floods. The results clarify how economic factors drive flash flood risk changes. The return period of the 2019 flash flood in the Yantanxi River Basin is 150-year. In 2019, flash floods affected 5.04% of the river basin; the inundation depth was concentrated at under 2.00 m, resulting in CNY 0.55 billion in economic damage. With economic change, the flash flood risk increases by 91.34% (SSP2- current economic development level) and 94.39% (SSP5-extreme economic development level). This study emphasizes the balance between economic development and disaster management at the river basin scale; additionally, our method provides a reference for risk assessment in flash-flood prone areas lacking statistical information.
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来源期刊
Weather Climate and Society
Weather Climate and Society METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.60%
发文量
95
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather, Climate, and Society (WCAS) publishes research that encompasses economics, policy analysis, political science, history, and institutional, social, and behavioral scholarship relating to weather and climate, including climate change. Contributions must include original social science research, evidence-based analysis, and relevance to the interactions of weather and climate with society.
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