利用上升拐点预测太阳第25周期的最大振幅

IF 2.7 3区物理与天体物理 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Solar Physics Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI:10.1007/s11207-023-02194-7

A. J. P. Aparicio, V. M. S. Carrasco, J. M. Vaquero

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在这项工作中，我们预测太阳周期25的最大振幅(使用13个月的平滑太阳影响数据分析中心(SILSO)太阳黑子数，版本2)，使用拐点在周期上升部分的斜率作为预测因子。在描述了本工作所采用的数据和方法之后，我们得到第25太阳周期的最大振幅为131±32。最后，我们在当前关于太阳活动预测的争论的背景下讨论了这一结果，并将其与其他方法获得的太阳周期25的其他预测进行了比较。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Ascending Inflection Point

In this work, we predict the maximum amplitude (using the 13-month smoothed Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SILSO) Sunspot Number, version 2) of Solar Cycle 25 using as a predictor the slope of the inflection point during the ascending part of the cycle. After a description of the data and methodology employed in this work, we obtain a value of 131 ± 32 for the maximum amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Finally, we discuss this result in the context of the current debate on the prediction of solar activity and compare it with other predictions of Solar Cycle 25 obtained by other methods.

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来源期刊

Solar Physics 地学天文-天文与天体物理

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

17.90%

发文量

146

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.