The US State-Level Wood Product-Based Bilateral Trade Balances with Canada Under the Protectionist US Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Policy Uncertainty

ABSTRACT The US-Canada wood product trade is a longstanding dispute due to protectionist high-tariff policies, further exacerbated by COVID-19 restrictions on US production and exports. This study investigates the J-curve effect at the US state level, revealing that only 11 US states support the asymmetric J-curve for wood products, whereas 10 US states support the asymmetric inverse J-curve (shown in Appendix 2 online). Furthermore, high tariffs imposed by the US improved trade balances for only three states, implying that the high-tariff policy did not enhance the US wood-based trade balance with Canada.