城市副中心作为区域发展政策:对房地产市场的影响

IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Regional Science Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI:10.1111/jors.12633
Ling Li, Fangzhou Xia
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究的目的是通过房地产市场的视角,对多中心发展政策进行当地的具体调查。中国首都北京采取了副中心规划,目的是通过重新分配行政和经济资源,在郊区发展新的经济增长极。在此,我们利用微物业交易数据的时空差异来解决发展副中心的非随机选址问题。结果显示,副中心计划公布后的第一年,副中心的房价上涨了10.5%,在连续上涨2年后稳定在20%左右。此外,随着与副中心新行政中心的距离增加,房地产价格的增长也会急剧下降。根据副中心计划,副中心将容纳数万名公务员。为了应对次中心引发的需求冲击,拥有弹性住房供应的地区经历了更大的人口增长和更弱的房价升值。尽管严格的限购政策在一定程度上稳定了这个副中心的房地产市场,但这股热潮已经蔓延到邻近的市场。房地产市场动态的特定地理位置为评估副中心计划的影响提供了一个重要渠道,并为优化副中心结果的策略发展提供了见解。
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City subcenter as a regional development policy: Impact on the property market

The aim of this study is to perform a locally specific investigation of a polycentric development policy through the lens of the property market. The capital city of China, Beijing, adopted a subcenter program for the purpose of developing a new economic growth pole in the suburbs through the redistribution of administrative and economic resources. Herein, we exploit spatial and temporal differencing in microproperty transaction data to address the issue of nonrandom selection of the site for developing the subcenter. The results show that in the first year after announcing the subcenter program, property prices in the subcenter rose by 10.5%, stabilizing at approximately 20% after 2 years of continuous increase. Moreover, property price growth decreases sharply with increased distance from the new administrative center in the subcenter, which will host tens of thousands of civil servants under the subcenter program. In response to the subcenter-induced demand shock, locations with elastically supplied housing have experienced greater population growth and weaker appreciation in property prices. Although strict purchase restrictions have helped stabilize the subcenter's property market to some extent, the fever has spread to adjacent markets. The specific geography of property market dynamics provides an important channel to evaluate the impact of the subcenter program and offers insight regarding the development of tactics to optimize subcenter outcomes.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
6.70%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: The Journal of Regional Science (JRS) publishes original analytical research at the intersection of economics and quantitative geography. Since 1958, the JRS has published leading contributions to urban and regional thought including rigorous methodological contributions and seminal theoretical pieces. The JRS is one of the most highly cited journals in urban and regional research, planning, geography, and the environment. The JRS publishes work that advances our understanding of the geographic dimensions of urban and regional economies, human settlements, and policies related to cities and regions.
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