俄罗斯人口对新经济现实的适应

E. Avraamova, D. Loginov
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摘要

本文通过分析俄罗斯人如何看待经济发展前景,以及他们可以用来制定适应新条件的战略的可用资源,研究了俄罗斯人在2015-2017年(通常被称为“新现实”的时期)的适应行为。我们同样也要说明俄罗斯人能够对局势产生影响的现有资源及其努力的结果。我们使用了由社会分析和预测研究所(俄罗斯总统国民经济和公共行政学院)进行的监测研究“人口的社会福祉”所产生的数据库,该研究通过八轮年度代表性人口调查进行,每轮调查的样本量为1600人。人们对目前的经济形势并不感到惊慌,但对改善的希望不大。大多数人不是通过积极地维持或改善他们的物质福利来适应,而是通过习惯于较低的消费标准来适应。只有五分之一的人口拥有制定各种适应战略所需的资源,而资源潜力不足的人口是五分之一人口的两倍。除了限制消费外,资源匮乏的人群还转向使用私人家庭用地。三分之一的人口实施了与各种资源相关的积极适应形式。
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The Russian Population’s Adaptation to the New Economic Reality
ABSTRACT The article considers the adaptive behavior of Russians during 2015–2017 (a period that is often referred to as the “new reality”) by analyzing how Russians perceive the prospects of economic development, and the available resources they can use to formulate their strategies for adapting to the new conditions. We likewise describe the available resources that Russians can bring to bear on the situation and the results of their efforts. We used the database produced by the monitoring study “The Social Well-Being of the Population,” which was conducted by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting, (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) via eight rounds of annual representative population surveys with a sample size of 1,600 respondents per each round. The population is not alarmed at the current economic situation, but has little hope for improvement. Most people have adapted not by actively maintaining or improving their material well-being, but by becoming inured to lower consumer standards. Only a fifth of the population has the necessary resources to develop a variety of adaptive strategies, and twice as many people have low resource potential. Apart from restricting their spending, people in the low resource group also turned to the use of private household plots. A third of the population implemented active forms of adaptation associated with a variety of resources.
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