定量生物地理学:标志性元生态系统中关键物种的减少和变化更大的动力学

IF 7.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Ecological Monographs Pub Date : 2022-10-25 DOI:10.1002/ecm.1556
Bruce A. Menge, Jonathan W. Robinson, Brittany N. Poirson, Sarah A. Gravem
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引用次数: 1

摘要

几十年来,生态系统的稳定性一直引起生态学家的兴趣,而全球气候变化的认识使这种兴趣更加强烈和集中。稳定性下降的一个可能的早期预警信号是,随着时间的推移,生态系统的变异性随着气候变异性的增加而增加。然而,要确定气候变化对群落稳定性的影响,需要对自然生态系统的结构和潜在动力学进行长期研究,包括自下而上和自上而下的影响。尽管在群落生态学的早期,相关数据集很少,但近几十年来,这类信息有所增加。我们研究了生态补贴(营养、浮游植物、猎物定殖)的平均值和变异度的时空变化,主要空间占有者(贻贝)及其主要捕食者(海星)的性能指标,以及海星对贻贝的捕食率与岩石海岸气候振荡、温度和疾病的关系。该研究涉及每年重复多年(~ 1999-2018),多地点(沿俄勒冈海岸约260公里的五个区域内的13个地点)观察,测量和实验。我们分析了以海星贻贝为主的中潮间带系统中环境变量与关键要素生态性能之间的关系。我们发现上升流在一些地区有所下降,但在所有研究地区都变得更加多变。空气和水温振荡,但它们的平均值和变化随着时间的推移而增加,峰值与2014-2016年El Niño和海洋热浪相吻合。生态补贴在研究期间总体下降,但变异性增加。除生长率外,贻贝(Mytilus californianus)的各项性能(状态指数、繁殖产量)普遍下降,变化较大。主要是由于海星消耗流行,顶级捕食者Pisaster ochraceus的繁殖产量下降,变得更加可变,对贻贝的捕食率下降。分析表明,这些变化的主要驱动因素是与温度相关的环境因子。由于生态性能的下降和增加的可变性可以作为不稳定生态系统的典型特征,并且环境趋势正朝着更加紧张的条件发展,这一标志性生态系统的前景令人沮丧。立即采取迅速行动,减缓并最终扭转气候变化,可能是防止这一生态系统和大多数其他生态系统未来发生不可逆转转变的唯一选择。
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Quantitative biogeography: Decreasing and more variable dynamics of critical species in an iconic meta-ecosystem

Ecosystem stability has intrigued ecologists for decades, and the realization that the global climate was changing has sharpened and focused this interest. One possible early warning signal of decreasing stability is increasing variability in ecosystems over time with increasing climate variability. Determining climate change effects on community stability, however, requires long-term studies of structure and underlying dynamics, including bottom-up and top-down effects in natural ecosystems. Although relevant datasets were rare in the early years of community ecology, such information has increased in recent decades. We investigated spatiotemporal changes in mean and variability of ecological subsidies (nutrients, phytoplankton, prey colonization), performance metrics of a dominant space occupier (mussels) and its primary predator (sea stars), and sea star predation rates on mussels in relation to climatic oscillations, temperature, and disease on rocky shores. The research involved annually repeated multiyear (~1999–2018), multisite (13 sites nested within five regions along ~260 km of the Oregon coast) observations, measurements, and experiments. We analyzed associations between environmental variables and ecological performance of key elements of the sea star-mussel-dominated mid intertidal system. We found that upwelling declined in some regions, but became more variable across all study regions. Air and water temperatures oscillated, but their mean and variation increased through time, with peak values coinciding with the 2014–2016 combined El Niño and Marine Heat Wave. Ecological subsidies generally declined during the study period but increased in variability. Excepting growth rate, mussel (Mytilus californianus) performance (condition index, reproductive output) generally decreased and became more variable. Primarily due to a sea star wasting epidemic, reproductive output of the top predator Pisaster ochraceus decreased and became more variable, and predation rate on mussels decreased. Analyses indicated that the primary drivers of these changes were temperature-related environmental factors. As declining means and increasing variability of ecological performances can typify destabilizing ecosystems, and environmental trends are toward ever more stressful conditions, the outlook for this iconic ecosystem is discouraging. Immediate and rapid action to mitigate and ultimately reverse climate change likely is the only option available to prevent an irreversible shift in the future of this, and most other ecosystems.

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来源期刊
Ecological Monographs
Ecological Monographs 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The vision for Ecological Monographs is that it should be the place for publishing integrative, synthetic papers that elaborate new directions for the field of ecology. Original Research Papers published in Ecological Monographs will continue to document complex observational, experimental, or theoretical studies that by their very integrated nature defy dissolution into shorter publications focused on a single topic or message. Reviews will be comprehensive and synthetic papers that establish new benchmarks in the field, define directions for future research, contribute to fundamental understanding of ecological principles, and derive principles for ecological management in its broadest sense (including, but not limited to: conservation, mitigation, restoration, and pro-active protection of the environment). Reviews should reflect the full development of a topic and encompass relevant natural history, observational and experimental data, analyses, models, and theory. Reviews published in Ecological Monographs should further blur the boundaries between “basic” and “applied” ecology. Concepts and Synthesis papers will conceptually advance the field of ecology. These papers are expected to go well beyond works being reviewed and include discussion of new directions, new syntheses, and resolutions of old questions. In this world of rapid scientific advancement and never-ending environmental change, there needs to be room for the thoughtful integration of scientific ideas, data, and concepts that feeds the mind and guides the development of the maturing science of ecology. Ecological Monographs provides that room, with an expansive view to a sustainable future.
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