Impact of cross border reverse migration in Delhi–UP region of India during COVID-19 lockdown

Abstract The declaration of a nationwide lockdown in India led to millions of migrant workers, particularly from Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar, returning to their home states without proper transportation and social distancing from cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad. This unforeseen migration and social mixing accelerated the transmission of diseases across the country. To analyze the impact of reverse migration on disease progression, we have developed a disease transmission model for the neighboring Indian states of Delhi and UP. The model’s essential mathematical properties, including positivity, boundedness, equilibrium points (EPs), and their linear stability, as well as computation of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) \left({R}_{0}) , are studied. The mathematical analysis reveals that the model with active reverse migration cannot reach a disease-free equilibrium, indicating that the failure of restrictive mobility intervention caused by reverse migration kept the disease propagation alive. Further, PRCC analysis highlights the need for effective home isolation, better disease detection techniques, and medical interventions to curb the spread. The study estimates a significantly shorter doubling time for exponential growth of the disease in both regions. In addition, the occurrence of synchronous patterns between epidemic trajectories of the Delhi and UP regions accentuates the severe implications of migrant plight on UP’s already fragile rural health infrastructure. By using COVID-19 incidence data, we quantify key epidemiological parameters, and our scenario analyses demonstrate how different lockdown plans might have impacted disease prevalence. Based on our observations, the transmission rate has the most significant impact on COVID-19 cases. This case study exemplifies the importance of carefully considering these issues before implementing lockdowns and social isolation throughout the country to combat future outbreaks.