山区跨栏交通事故驾驶员伤害严重程度影响因素的时间稳定性

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Analytic Methods in Accident Research Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.amar.2023.100282
Dongdong Song , Xiaobao Yang , Panagiotis Ch. Anastasopoulos , Xingshui Zu , Xianfei Yue , Yitao Yang
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引用次数: 8

摘要

交通障碍碰撞一直是交通安全文献中许多先前研究的主要问题,特别是在山区易发生碰撞的路段。然而,不同类型的交通障碍对碰撞造成的伤害严重程度的影响因素可能是不同的。本文对有序和无序离散结果模型的性能进行了实证评估,以检验外生因素对涉及山区两种交通障碍(w梁障碍和电缆障碍)的碰撞驾驶员伤害严重程度的影响。对于有序框架,可选择的建模方法包括:广义有序logit模型(GOL)和随机阈值随机参数广义有序logit模型(RTRPGOL)。而对于无序框架,可选择的建模方法包括:多项logit (MNL)、随机参数多正态logit (RPL)和均值和方差异质性随机参数多正态logit模型(RPLHMV)。利用2016 - 2019年贵阳市山区伤害严重程度数据,确定了重伤(SI)、轻伤(MI)和无伤(NI)三种伤害严重程度类别作为结果变量,并对驾驶员、车辆、道路和环境特征等潜在影响因素进行了统计分析。模型估计结果表明:(a) MNL模型在拟合优度指标上优于GOL模型;(b) RTRPGOL模型在统计上优于MNL和RPL模型;(c) RPLHMV模型在统计上优于RTRPGOL模型,因此是模型备选方案中的首选。为此,利用RPLHMV模型定量描述解释变量对驾驶员伤害严重程度的影响,并探讨这些因素在2016-2017年至2018-2019年期间的变化情况。结果进一步表明,影响驾驶员伤害严重程度的因素及显著性因素对伤害严重概率的影响在不同交通障碍碰撞模型和年份之间存在差异。此外,时间效应分析结果表明,一些变量具有相对的时间稳定性,这对制定提高山区道路交通安全的长期策略具有重要意义。最重要的是,显示相对时间稳定性的解释因素的影响被发现在不同的交通障碍碰撞中有所不同。例如,卡车、日光、弯曲路段和高速限制(超过55英里/小时)是在交通障碍碰撞模型之间产生相反影响的一些因素。本文的研究结果有望帮助决策者采取必要的措施,通过制定适当的策略,并在前期规划阶段合理分配其可用资源,以减少山区交通障碍事故。
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Temporal stability of the impact of factors determining drivers’ injury severities across traffic barrier crashes in mountainous regions

Traffic barrier crashes have been a major concern in many prior studies in traffic safety literature, especially in the crash-prone sections of mountainous regions. However, the effect of factors affecting the injury-severities resulting from crashes involving different types of traffic barriers may be different. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the performance of ordered and unordered discrete outcome models for examining the impact of exogenous factors determining the driver injury-severity of crashes involving two types of traffic barriers in mountainous regions: w-beam barriers and cable barriers. For the ordered framework, the alternative modeling approaches include: the generalized ordered logit (GOL) and the random thresholds random parameters generalized ordered logit model (RTRPGOL). Whereas, for the unordered framework, the alternative modeling approaches include: the multinomial logit (MNL), the random parameters multinormal logit (RPL), and the random parameters multinormal logit model with heterogeneity in the means and variances (RPLHMV). Using injury-severity data from 2016 to 2019 for mountainous regions in Guiyang City, China, three injury-severity categories are determined as outcome variables: severe injury (SI), minor injury (MI), and no injury (NI), while the potential influencing factors including drivers-, vehicles-, road-, and environment-specific characteristics are statistically analyzed. The model estimation results show: (a) that the MNL model statistically outperforms the GOL model in terms of goodness-of-fit measures; (b) the RTRPGOL model is statistically superior to the MNL and RPL models; and (c) the RPLHMV model is statistically superior to the RTRPGOL model, and therefore the preferred option among the model alternatives. To that end, the RPLHMV model is leveraged to quantitatively describe the impact of explanatory variables on the driver injury-severity and explore how these factors change over the years (between 2016–2017 and 2018–2019). The results further show that the factors affecting driver injury severities and the effects of significant factors on injury severity probabilities change across traffic barrier crash models and across years. In addition, the results of the temporal effects analysis show that some variables present relative temporal stability, which is important for formulating long-term strategies to enhance traffic safety on mountainous roads. Most importantly, the effects of the explanatory factors that exhibit relative temporal stability are found to vary across traffic barrier crashes. For example, trucks, daylight, curved section segments, and high-speed limit (greater than 55 mph) are some of the factors that have opposite effects between traffic barrier crash models. The findings from this paper are expected to help policy makers to take necessary measures in reducing traffic barrier crashes in mountainous regions by forming appropriate strategies, and by allocating properly their available resources at the pre-planning phase.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
期刊最新文献
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