{"title":"有效点差博彩市场：文献综述","authors":"Jonas Vandenbruaene, M. D. Ceuster, J. Annaert","doi":"10.1177/15270025211071042","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Are simple trading strategies profitable? It is a question that has been on the minds of academics and practitioners for decades. In this paper, we review the longstanding literature on trading strategies in spread betting (also known as handicap betting), a popular sports betting microstructure. We review over 600 strategy implementations and find that market efficiency and systematic misperceptions are not mutually exclusive per se. Predictable glitches occur, but they are too small to be profitably exploited which is consistent with efficient markets. Furthermore, while controlling for data mining issues is becoming mainstream in finance, it has not yet made its way into this literature. We provide evidence that the hurdle rate of |z| > 3 which has been put forward in the broader finance literature should also be used in betting market research.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Efficient Spread Betting Markets: A Literature Review\",\"authors\":\"Jonas Vandenbruaene, M. D. Ceuster, J. Annaert\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/15270025211071042\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Are simple trading strategies profitable? It is a question that has been on the minds of academics and practitioners for decades. In this paper, we review the longstanding literature on trading strategies in spread betting (also known as handicap betting), a popular sports betting microstructure. We review over 600 strategy implementations and find that market efficiency and systematic misperceptions are not mutually exclusive per se. Predictable glitches occur, but they are too small to be profitably exploited which is consistent with efficient markets. Furthermore, while controlling for data mining issues is becoming mainstream in finance, it has not yet made its way into this literature. We provide evidence that the hurdle rate of |z| > 3 which has been put forward in the broader finance literature should also be used in betting market research.\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025211071042\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025211071042","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Efficient Spread Betting Markets: A Literature Review
Are simple trading strategies profitable? It is a question that has been on the minds of academics and practitioners for decades. In this paper, we review the longstanding literature on trading strategies in spread betting (also known as handicap betting), a popular sports betting microstructure. We review over 600 strategy implementations and find that market efficiency and systematic misperceptions are not mutually exclusive per se. Predictable glitches occur, but they are too small to be profitably exploited which is consistent with efficient markets. Furthermore, while controlling for data mining issues is becoming mainstream in finance, it has not yet made its way into this literature. We provide evidence that the hurdle rate of |z| > 3 which has been put forward in the broader finance literature should also be used in betting market research.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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