调整与制约:拜登政府的伊朗政策

Jiahua Tang, R. Pan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文通过对比拜登政府和特朗普政府的中东战略,概述了美国近期的对伊政策。特朗普的“极限施压”运动采取了退出伊朗核协议、升级对伊朗制裁等各种咄咄逼人的政策。然而,事实证明,这一行动是失败的,因为它受到伊朗反制措施的阻碍,并损害了美国的国际声誉。拜登政府有改善美伊关系和恢复伊朗核协议的动机。然而,它面临着国内政治和对美国盟友不信任的双重制约。国内强硬派向拜登政府施压,要求其对伊朗保持强硬立场,并反对美国在重新谈判核协议时做出让步。包括美国的盟国在内的其他相关国家都在犹豫是否要遵守美国的规定。在中东战略方面,特朗普对此前协议的背叛给美国带来了信誉危机。虽然伊朗核谈判已经重启,但伊朗核计划的前景仍然黯淡。由于国家利益不同,美国、伊朗等相关大国之间正在酝酿分歧。此外,由极端保守派领导人易卜拉欣·莱希领导的新当选的伊朗总统使得达成新的伊朗核协议变得更加困难。为了重启伊核协议,本文建议拜登政府通过合作确保伊朗的利益,更多地关注伊朗的社会发展和民生。
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Adjustments and Constraints: Biden Administration’s Iran Policy
Abstract This article provides an overview of the recent US Iran policies by comparing the US Middle East strategy under the Biden administration to the Trump administration’s approach. Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign adopted various aggressive policies including withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement and escalating sanction measures against Iran. However, the campaign has proven a failure as it was impeded by Iran’s countermeasures and has damaged the US international reputations. The Biden administration has incentives to improve the US-Iran relations and restore the Iran nuclear deal. However, it faces constraints from both domestic politics and distrust of US alliances. Domestic hardliners have pressured the Biden administration to keep a tough stance on Iran and opposed the US to make concessions as it renegotiates the nuclear deal. Other related countries including the US allies are hesitant to comply with US. In terms of its Middle East strategy, Trump’s betrayal of the previous deal has brought credibility crisis to the US. Though the Iran nuclear talks have restarted, the future of Iran’s nuclear program remains bleak. Divergence is brewing among the US, Iran, and other related powers due to different national interests. Also, the newly elected Iranian presidency, led by ultra conservative leader Ebrahim Raisi’s, makes a new Iran nuclear deal more difficult to obtain. To revive the Iran nuclear agreement, this article suggests that the Biden administration ensure Iran’s interests through cooperation and pay more attention to the social development and people’s livelihood in Iran.
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