Pemodelan Deteksi Krisis Keuangan di Indonesia Berdasarkan Indikator M2/Cadangan Devisa

The banking crisis reflects the liquidity crisis and bankruptcy of banks in the financial system. The financial crisis that occurred in mid-1997 resulted in a financial crisis that had a severe impact on the Indonesian economy. This made it aware of the importance of building a financial crisis early detection system to prepare for a crisis. The crisis occurs due to several macroeconomic indicators undergoing structural changes (regimes) and contain very high fluctuations. Combined volatility models and Markov regime switching are very suitable for explaining crises. The M2/international reserves indicator from 1990 to 2018 was used to build a crisis model. The results showed that the Markov regime switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model MRS-ARCH(2,1) could explain the crisis that occurred in mid-1997. Based on this model, in the future the crisis might occur if the M2/international reserves indicator decreased minimum of 13%