Modelling climate change impact and mitigation actions: A case study of rice productivity in West Africa based on panel data analysis

This paper investigated how climate change can affect paddy rice productivity and proposed a mitigation measure that may be undertaken. The analysis first explored the potential impacts of climate variables on rice yields by using panel data covering the period 1980 to 2016 for seven countries members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). It then went on to calculate the investments needed in Research and Development (R&D) for developing new crop varieties technologies by applying the methodology developed by World Bank (2010). Results indicated the growth of rice yields was positively related to the level of technological progress, the rainfall or quantity of water, and amount of seedlings. The concentration level temperature and the mass of carbon dioxide emitted throughout rice cultivation appeared to affect negatively the growth of rice yields. From the estimation of fixed-effects model, the findings showed the existence of specificities (heterogeneity) among the underlying countries that influenced positively rice production in the study area. After all, the aggregate impact of climate change on paddy rice productivity was found to be negative in WAEMU area. From the application of Word Bank methodology, it was recommended to all the countries, in particular, Benin, Burkina-Faso and Niger to increase constantly their annual (R&D) spending throughout the period 2017 to 2050. In consideration of the negative impact of climate variables, the study proposed the development of new rice varieties that could withstand temperature, and a rigorous management of postharvest cropland enabling the reduction of negative externalities due to carbon dioxide emissions. Key words: Rice productivity, climate change, mitigation, panel data analysis.