College or Bust… or Both: The Effects of the Great Recession on College Enrollment for Black and Latinx Young Adults

Abstract This article looks at whether the Great Recession led to changes in two-year and four-year college enrollment patterns for students aged 18–24. In particular, I examine how the probability of enrollment changed for Black and Latinx students. It is not initially clear whether the Great Recession would increase or decrease college enrollment for these populations. On the one hand, higher unemployment rates could prompt people to enroll in college, but on the other, reduced credit availability could decrease an individual’s ability to cover costs. I use the severity of the recession in different states to compare how enrollment changed in states that had relatively larger increases in the unemployment rates during the recession using the Current Population Survey (CPS) October Education supplements from 2002 to 2012 as the data source. I find that the probability of college enrollment increased after the onset of the Great Recession for Black students. There is some weak evidence that enrollment might have increased for Latinx students. Enrollment was not more likely in states with higher than average unemployment rates.