和平不可能——土耳其库尔德人在正义与发展党统治下

Adam Martofel
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摘要

本文的目的是介绍土耳其对库尔德人的国家政策,库尔德人是土耳其共和国在正义与发展党统治下最大的少数民族。主要参考点是2000年代土耳其的内部局势。考虑到2014年和2015年总统和议会选举的结果,以及2016年7月政变失败后土耳其的安全政策,作者指出了库尔德-土耳其冲突下一阶段的开始。本文提出了针对库尔德人的新一轮政治镇压浪潮,并将库尔德问题作为土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚和俄罗斯联邦等主要地区大国的利益之一进行了讨论。最后,文章指出了土耳其在叙利亚内战中的军事参与作用,并将这种参与与土耳其共和国和该地区库尔德人的局势联系起来。分析结果表明,加强库尔德民族主义和库尔德人对库尔德工人党的支持是可能的。新的反库尔德工人党战略可能会加剧政治两极分化。库尔德工人党也有可能加强其行动。与此同时,该战略可能会巩固正义与发展党和埃尔多安的选民,从而加强政府的地位。在区域层面,该战略要求土耳其增加在伊拉克和叙利亚领土上的行动。考虑到PKK和PYD之间的关系,土耳其对叙利亚的军事干预和对伊拉克的介入可能会导致库尔德人在这三个州的进一步巩固。作为国际关系的一个例子,土耳其与伊朗和巴格达中央政府的紧张关系可能会进一步紧张。伊朗有意保留其对伊拉克的影响力。
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Pokój niemożliwy – Kurdowie w Turcji pod rządami AKP
The purpose of this article is a presentation of Turkey’s state policy toward the Kurds, the Republic of Turkey’s largest ethnic minority under AKP rule. The main point of reference is an internal situation in Turkey from the 2000s. The author points out the beginnings of the next stage of Kurdish-Turkish conflict taking into account the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2015 and Turkey’s security policy after a failed coup d’état attempt on July 2016. This paper provides a new wave of political repression against Kurds and discusses the Kurdish issue as one of the interests of the main regional powers including Turkey, Iran, Syria and Russian Federation. Finally the article indicates Turkey’s military engagement role in Syrian Civil War and implicates this engagement on the situation of Kurds in Republic of Turkey and in the region. As a result of the analysis, author pointed out possibility to reinforce of Kurdish nationalism and support of the Kurds for PKK. The effect of the new anti-PKK strategy will probably be increased political polarisation. It is also probable that the PKK will intensify its actions. At the same time, the strategy may lead to the consolidation of the AKP’s and Erdoğan’s electorate, resulting in strengthening the government’s position. In the regional dimension, the strategy requires an increase in Turkish actions on Iraqi and Syrian soil. Taking into account the relationship between PKK and PYD, Turkish military intervention in Syria and involvement in Iraq could lead to greater consolidation of Kurds in all three states. As an example for international relations, Turkey’s tense relations with Iran, which is interested in preserving its influence over Iraq, and the central government in Bagdad may be further strained.
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