Relocation Decisions in Uncertain Times: Brexit and Financial Services

abstract This article examines the impact of uncertainty and profound political, economic, and regulatory changes on the process of geographic reorganization of the financial industry in the course of Brexit. It draws on historic lessons of massive relocations within the financial industry in Europe to conjecture three scenarios: (1) concentrated relocation to build a new European lead financial center (FC), (2) least necessary relocation to meet regulatory requirements for operation in the EU single market, and (3) selective relocation and cumulative functional specialization of regional FCs. Drawing on official statistics, corporate and media reports, as well as on qualitative interviews and participant observation in the field, we build an original database of published plans and confirmed practices of geographic reorganization. Our analysis of the relocations of financial service firms from London to five leading FCs on the European continent supports the least necessary relocation as well as selective relocation scenarios. We conclude that Brexit-induced reorganization actually reproduces the existing geographic architecture while simultaneously deepening the divisions of labor among the established European FCs.