Development of the epidemic process of HIV infection in the penitentiary system

The purpose statement is to identify and assess the risk factors determined by the development of the epidemic process of HIV infection in the area of high concentration of the risk group.Object of study. 365 deceased HIV-infected were identified, of which: the study group — 222 prisoners who died HIV-infected on the basis of the Regional Hospital of the Federal Penitentiary Service of the city of Tyumen for the period 2008–2018; control group — 143 civilian (law-abiding) patients who died HIVinfected on the basis of the Regional Infectious Diseases Hospital for the period 2011–2018.Research methods. The work used the methods of epidemiological research, mathematical modeling and forecasting, logistic regression of stepwise inclusion with ROC analysis.Results. To assess the epidemiological situation in relation to the incidence of HIV infection in places of detention, the longterm dynamics of the development of the epidemic process was studied with an assessment of priority risk factors, forecasting the development of the epidemic process of HIV infection with the establishment of social significance and risk for the civilian population over a long period. The probability of developing a fatal outcome in HIV-positive men serving sentences is 4.7 times higher than among civilian men, while 14.6 times higher when infected with HIV by parenteral (narcotic) infection, 4.8 times higher with concomitant viral hepatitis and 20 times higher in the presence of a respiratory disease, 99.2% higher in the clinical stages of HIV infection 3, 4A, 4B than in civilians.Conclusion. Prisoners have an unfavorable situation for HIV infection with high mortality. A set of organizational and preventive measures to prevent the spread of HIV among prisoners at the present stage should be strengthened with an emphasis on groups at increased risk and progression of infection.