Reichenbach参考类问题的形式化解

Q2 Arts and Humanities DIALECTICA Pub Date : 2019-11-14 DOI:10.1111/1746-8361.12273
Paul D. Thorn
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引用次数: 3

摘要

根据Reichenbach的观点,人们普遍认为,在进行直接推理时,人们应该将结论建立在与最具体的参考类相关的频率陈述上,这样人们就能够对这些参考类做出有根据且相对精确的频率判断。如果有两个相关参考类R1和R2的准确和精确值的频率信息,而缺乏它们相交的准确和精确值的频率信息,那么根据Reichenbach的观点,人们普遍认为不能得出任何推论。与Reichenbach和常识相反,我认为在这种情况下,通常有可能得出一个合理的信息结论。作为得出这样一个结论的基础,我表明人们通常能够为一个比R1和R2更具体的参考类制定一个合理的直接推理。
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A Formal Solution to Reichenbach's Reference Class Problem

Following Reichenbach, it is widely held that in making a direct inference, one should base one's conclusion on a relevant frequency statement concerning the most specific reference class for which one is able to make a warranted and relatively precise-valued frequency judgment. In cases where one has accurate and precise-valued frequency information for two relevant reference classes, R1 and R2, and one lacks accurate and precise-valued frequency information concerning their intersection, R1∩R2, it is widely held, following Reichenbach, that no inference may be drawn. In contradiction to Reichenbach and the common wisdom, I argue for the view that it is often possible to draw a reasonable informative conclusion in such circumstances. As a basis for drawing such a conclusion, I show that one is generally in a position to formulate a reasonable direct inference for a reference class that is more specific than either of R1 and R2.

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来源期刊
DIALECTICA
DIALECTICA PHILOSOPHY-
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
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0
期刊介绍: Dialectica publishes first-rate articles predominantly in theoretical and systematic philosophy. It is edited in Switzerland and has a focus on analytical philosophy undertaken on the continent. Continuing the work of its founding members, dialectica seeks a better understanding of the mutual support between science and philosophy that both disciplines need and enjoy in their common search for understanding.
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