WRF模式中带4D-Var和涡动力初始化的热带气旋移动

IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 热带气象学报 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.018
Wang Ting, Peng Yue-hua, Zhang Bang-lin, Leung Jeremy Cheuk-Hin, Shi Wei-lai
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引用次数: 2

摘要

以前的研究表明,用于数据同化的4D-Var技术可以用于天气控制。本研究通过计算WRF模拟中的扰动,证明了4D-Var影响热带气旋未来路径的能力。在给定背景误差协方差矩阵的情况下,采用涡流动态初始化技术对初始场进行了改进。结果表明,4D-Var可以通过产生“最优”扰动来控制模拟热带气旋的轨迹。在2019年台风米塔格的数值模拟实验中,经过这种类似于数据同化的天气控制后,热带气旋移动明显,海岸线上的破坏性风减弱。经过4D-Var初始场修正后的预报结果变化较大,同化后热带气旋位置向东南移动约0.5°,偏离中国东南沿海。此外,破坏性的风也减弱了。由于4D-Var是在假设模型是完美的前提下,没有考虑模型误差,所以本文讨论了考虑模型误差和引入新方法的研究计划。
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Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model
Previous studies showed that 4D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously, and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation, which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.
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来源期刊
热带气象学报
热带气象学报 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
8.30%
发文量
2793
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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