The Hong Kong crisis and its effect on the 2020 presidential election in Taiwan

ABSTRACT This study examines the role played by the Hong Kong crisis in the outcome of the 2020 Taiwanese presidential election. Using the original data from a two-wave panel survey, we present solid evidence showing that the effect of cross-strait relations on voting behaviour in Taiwan is certainly complex and intricate. This study finds that greater optimism about Taiwan’s future is conducive to the Democratic Progressive Party’s chance of winning the election. However, when Taiwanese voters takes into consideration the Hong Kong crisis, it is found that greater optimism about Taiwan’s future helps relatively more the Kuomintang. Thus, this study deepens our understanding of the role of the cross-strait relations in shaping electoral behaviour in Taiwan for presidential elections.