A shortage of brides: China’s one child policy and transitions of men into marriage

China’s one child policy stands among the most consequential actions ever taken by a government to regulate the basic structure and fundamental nature of the family unit. Scholars and policy analysts have long recognized its likely effects with respect to the aging of Chinese society. In recent years they have also become more aware of the implications of the gender imbalance the policies have produced, in particular as they pertain to the formation of marriages. This paper analyzes the selection of surplus men into marriage by means of a model that explicitly accounts for earnings and wealth. Its central focus is the extent to which relatively scarce brides marry men with comparatively strong economic prospects in terms of earnings or wealth. Results of this study, based on data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, provide evidence that marriage in the age of the one child policy is indeed selective of men who are relatively high earners. This result is robust to a series of alternative specifications of the model.