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Bulkiness of goods and the gravity of international trade: Differential impact of trade barriers 货物的体积和国际贸易的引力:贸易壁垒的不同影响
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101013
Xuebing Yang
This study investigates how the trade elasticity to trade barriers, or the lack thereof, varies with the bulkiness of goods, measured as the value-to-weight ratio (V/W ratio). The empirical analysis presented herein offers compelling evidence that lighter goods, characterized by higher V/W ratios, demonstrate reduced trade elasticity to distance, contiguity, and colonial relationships but heightened trade sensitivity to language. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for the variations in V/W ratios when applying gravity models and reveal noteworthy heterogeneity in trade elasticity at the country and trade-pair levels.
本研究探讨了贸易壁垒的贸易弹性或缺乏贸易壁垒的情况如何随商品的体积(以价值/重量比(V/W 比)衡量)而变化。本文提出的实证分析提供了令人信服的证据,表明以较高的价值/重量比为特征的轻型商品对距离、毗连性和殖民地关系的贸易弹性降低,但对语言的贸易敏感性提高。这些发现强调了在应用引力模型时考虑V/W比率变化的重要性,并揭示了在国家和贸易对层面贸易弹性中值得注意的异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Oil Price and Long-run Economic Growth in Oil-importing Developing Countries 石油进口发展中国家的石油价格与长期经济增长
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101009
Samuel F. Gamtessa, Harminder Guliani
The recent spikes in oil prices are a significant setback for the world economy, which has already faced multiple challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is particularly concerning for developing countries as maintaining a sustained growth in real GDP is crucial for lifting their population out of poverty. While the short-run negative macroeconomic effects of a spike in oil prices are well established in the context of the developed world, the long-run growth effect has received little attention, especially in developing countries. Using the World Bank's development indicators database covering the period 1990 to 2020, this study aims to investigate the oil price-growth nexus in low and middle-income net oil-importing countries to shed light on how oil price increases could be a challenge for sustainable development. Specifically, we first set up a theoretical model to establish the relationship between growth in output per capita and oil price. Following the traditional growth regression approaches, we empirically estimate the causal effect of growth in oil prices on the economic growth of 65 net oil-importing developing countries using fixed effect panel IV regression methods. The empirical results confirm statistically significant negative effects of oil prices, indicating that a higher oil price reduces long-run economic growth in oil-importing developing countries. Our results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the existing empirical growth literature. Oil-importing developing countries, therefore, must allocate resources towards alternative domestic energy sources, in addition to pursuing fuel efficiency and conservation strategies, to mitigate the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on their long-run economic output and uphold sustainable development.
由于 COVID-19 大流行病,世界经济已经面临多重挑战,最近的石油价格飙升是世界经济的重大挫折。这尤其令发展中国家担忧,因为保持实际国内生产总值的持续增长对于帮助这些国家的人口摆脱贫困至关重要。虽然油价飙升对宏观经济的短期负面影响在发达国家已得到公认,但其对经济增长的长期影响却很少受到关注,尤其是在发展中国家。本研究利用世界银行 1990 年至 2020 年期间的发展指标数据库,旨在调查中低收入石油净进口国的石油价格与增长之间的关系,以揭示石油价格上涨如何对可持续发展构成挑战。具体来说,我们首先建立了一个理论模型,以确定人均产出增长与石油价格之间的关系。按照传统的增长回归方法,我们采用固定效应面板 IV 回归方法,实证估计了油价增长对 65 个净石油进口发展中国家经济增长的因果效应。实证结果证实了石油价格在统计上的显著负效应,表明石油价格上涨会降低石油进口发展中国家的长期经济增长。我们对经济增长其他决定因素的研究结果与现有的经济增长实证文献一致。因此,进口石油的发展中国家除了采取燃料效率和节约战略外,还必须将资源分配给国内替代能源,以减轻石油价格波动对其长期经济产出的负面影响,坚持可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign aid and inequality: Do conflicts matter? 外国援助与不平等:冲突重要吗?
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101008
Martin Ambassa , Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou , Pierre Christian Tsopmo
Existing literature on the relationship between foreign aid and income inequality (inequality) is inconclusive and the role of conflict has been underexplored. Yet, the frequency and severity of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have increased sharply in recent years. This study investigates the impact of foreign aid on inequality in SSA, focusing on the moderating role of conflicts. Using a sample of 41 SSA countries from 1989 to 2022, we employ fixed-effects and System GMM to explore the complex interplay between foreign aid, conflicts and inequality. The results suggest that foreign aid reduces inequality, but that its effectiveness is considerably reduced in conflict-ridden countries. The results confirm the harmful effect of conflict in the foreign aid-inequality nexus in SSA. Results are robust to many robustness checks, such as the alternative strategy, which combines alternative inequality and conflict measures. Our results suggest that promoting good governance by fighting corruption and preventing conflict can enable foreign aid to significantly reduce inequality in SSA.
关于外国援助与收入不平等(不平等)之间关系的现有文献尚无定论,对冲突的作用也探讨不足。然而,近年来撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)冲突的频率和严重程度急剧上升。本研究调查了外国援助对撒哈拉以南非洲不平等的影响,重点关注冲突的调节作用。我们以 1989 年至 2022 年的 41 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家为样本,采用固定效应和系统 GMM 方法探讨了外国援助、冲突和不平等之间复杂的相互作用。结果表明,外援可以减少不平等,但在冲突频发的国家,外援的效果会大打折扣。结果证实了冲突在撒南非洲外援-不平等关系中的有害影响。结果对许多稳健性检验都是稳健的,例如结合了其他不平等和冲突衡量标准的替代策略。我们的结果表明,通过打击腐败和预防冲突来促进善治,可以使外援显著减少撒南非洲的不平等现象。
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引用次数: 0
An inquiry into the causes of income differences among high-income countries 探究高收入国家之间收入差异的原因
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101006
Jayadevan CM, Nam Trung Hoang, Subba Reddy Yarram
Within high-income countries, there is a notable income inequality spectrum, with certain nations positioned close to a predefined economic threshold, while others within this cohort simultaneously embark on substantial economic growth. This study investigates the influence of critical factors on economic growth and the transition from lower-high and middle-high income to upper-high income. Between 1990 and 2019, 25 of the 28 nations successfully advanced to upper-high income levels. Several key factors contribute to overcoming the barriers associated with lower-high income or middle-high income to upper-high income status. These factors include labor force participation, labor productivity, life expectancy, high-tech exports, reduction in unemployment rates, age dependency ratio, and poverty. The regression discontinuity analysis reveals a positive impact on the experimental group, as economic globalization surpasses the threshold of 78 % facilitating the achievement of upper-high income status.
在高收入国家中,存在着明显的收入不平等现象,某些国家接近预定的经济门槛,而其他国家则同时实现了大幅经济增长。本研究探讨了关键因素对经济增长以及从中低收入向中高收入过渡的影响。从 1990 年到 2019 年,28 个国家中有 25 个成功晋升到高收入水平。有几个关键因素有助于克服与较低收入或中等高收入向高收入地位过渡有关的障碍。这些因素包括劳动力参与率、劳动生产率、预期寿命、高科技出口、失业率下降、受抚养人口年龄比和贫困。回归不连续分析表明,经济全球化超过 78%的临界值有助于实现高收入地位,这对实验组产生了积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic effects of productivity shocks: Predictions of conventional business cycle models are not always incompatible with SSA economies 生产力冲击对宏观经济的影响:传统商业周期模型的预测并非总是与撒哈拉以南非洲经济体不相容
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101012
Emmanuel Ameyaw
Despite the increasing application of DSGE and RBC models to Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies, questions persist about their alignment with empirical evidence for these economies. This study challenges claims of substantial incongruity with respect to the propagation of productivity shocks by demonstrating a close correspondence between empirical evidence for Ghana’s economy and predictions of the classical real business cycle model. Following a positive productivity shock, we observe a positive comovement among aggregate demand variables (i.e., consumption, investment, government spending, exports, and imports), aggregate supply variables (capital and labor), and money supply while the inflation rate and interest rate decline. Among these, we find the responses of output, consumption, government spending, and inflation rate to be statistically significant. These results contradict assertions of discordance between conventional business cycle models and SSA structural characteristics, at least for Ghana’s economy. The study is motivated by limited empirical evidence on how productivity shocks propagate through SSA economies, and for Ghana, there is no such study. On a secondary goal and by virtue of using a time-varying parameter VAR model, our results also suggest that Ghana’s long business cycle moderation from the mid-1980s to about 2010 was primarily due to a reduction in the volatility of shocks hitting the economy rather than changes in the structural relationship between macroeconomic variables.
尽管 DSGE 和 RBC 模型越来越多地应用于撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)经济体,但这些模型与这些经济体的经验证据是否一致的问题依然存在。本研究通过证明加纳经济的经验证据与经典实际商业周期模型的预测之间存在密切的对应关系,对有关生产率冲击传播方面存在严重不一致的说法提出了质疑。在生产率受到正向冲击后,我们观察到总需求变量(即消费、投资、政府支出、出口和进口)、总供给变量(资本和劳动力)和货币供应量之间的正相关性,同时通货膨胀率和利率下降。其中,我们发现产出、消费、政府支出和通胀率的反应在统计上是显著的。这些结果与传统商业周期模型和 SSA 结构特征不一致的说法相矛盾,至少对加纳经济而言是如此。这项研究的动机是,关于生产率冲击如何在撒哈拉以南非洲经济体中传播的经验证据有限,而对于加纳而言,尚无此类研究。在次要目标上,由于使用了时变参数 VAR 模型,我们的结果还表明,加纳从 20 世纪 80 年代中期到 2010 年左右的长期商业周期缓和主要是由于冲击经济的波动性降低,而不是宏观经济变量之间的结构关系发生了变化。
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引用次数: 0
Consumption and the permanent income of households 家庭消费和永久收入
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101011
Roni Frish
This study examines household consumption using data from the Israeli Consumer Expenditure (CE) Surveys and longitudinal administrative income records for 2004–16. The key findings challenge the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis (LCH): The propensity to consume out of income received after the CE survey is half that of income received before the survey. Households with higher income growth showed higher consumption growth. Households tend to consume a significant portion of transitory income straightaway. Finally, households without a pension plan show a marked decrease in consumption upon crossing the retirement age.
本研究利用 2004-16 年以色列消费者支出(CE)调查数据和纵向行政收入记录对家庭消费进行了研究。主要研究结果对永久收入假说(PIH)和生命周期假说(LCH)提出了质疑:居民消费调查后所得收入的消费倾向是调查前所得收入的一半。收入增长较高的家庭的消费增长也较高。家庭倾向于直接消费大部分过渡性收入。最后,没有养老金计划的家庭在跨入退休年龄后消费明显减少。
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引用次数: 0
Shareholder voting and efficient corporate decision-making 股东投票和高效的公司决策
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101010
Kyounghun Lee, Frederick Dongchuhl Oh
This study assesses the effects of shareholder voting on a firm’s decision-making by considering two voting methods: majority voting (MV) and quadratic voting (QV). Under MV, shareholders obtain voting rights in proportion to their shares, while under QV, they pay costs to buy voting rights. Our model demonstrates that under both MV and QV, the firm’s decision is efficient if shareholders collectively make the voting decisions. Moreover, shareholders can benefit from share trades resulting in the firm’s efficient decision.
本研究通过考虑两种投票方法:多数投票(MV)和二次投票(QV),评估股东投票对公司决策的影响。在多数投票制下,股东按股份比例获得投票权,而在二次投票制下,股东购买投票权需要支付成本。我们的模型表明,在多数投票制和二次投票制下,如果股东集体做出投票决定,公司的决策就是有效的。此外,股东还能从公司有效决策导致的股份交易中获益。
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引用次数: 0
Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to goods and labour markets: A BOP-IXSM-Okun model 将 BOPC 增长模型与商品和劳动力市场的外债动态联系起来:BOP-IXSM-Okun 模型
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101007
Thomas H.W. Ziesemer
We link a BOPC growth model to the goods market, foreign debt dynamics, and Okun's law. A new condition for getting the Thirlwall effect of world GDP growth on domestic growth is that investment and export shares of GDP should react less to an increase in the domestic growth rate than savings and import shares. If this condition holds, the Thirlwall effect is present for the equilibrium point of stable and unstable debt/GDP dynamics and for positive or negative reactions of the current account to domestic growth. Okun's law translates the effect on the domestic GDP growth rate to a change of the unemployment rate. Under unstable debt/GDP dynamics, the change of world GDP growth may turn around the direction of the debt/GDP dynamics, a second important foreign growth effect. Estimations support the specification of the theoretical model and lead to simulations of the Thirlwall effect, terms of trade and interest rate shocks on output growth. Profit maximizing bank consortia set interest rates below growth rates ensuring stable debt dynamics in the presence of an interior maximum. Conditions for an interior maximum are empirically violated for Brazil indicating that banks would have to change the economy strongly. A crisis can be less likely through a jump into a steady state for the debt/GDP ratio; unstable, increasing debt/GDP processes through high interest rates cannot be ruled out though and may lead to crises unless the empirics of the stability conditions gets more favourable and leads the country-bank model into a stable steady state or out of indebtedness.
我们将 BOPC 增长模型与商品市场、外债动态和奥肯定律联系起来。获得世界 GDP 增长对国内增长的 Thirlwall 效应的一个新条件是,GDP 中的投资和出口份额对国内增长率上升的反应应小于储蓄和进口份额。如果这个条件成立,那么在债务/GDP 动态稳定和不稳定的均衡点上,以及在经常账户对国内增长的正负反应上,都会出现塞尔沃尔效应。奥肯定律将对国内 GDP 增长率的影响转化为失业率的变化。在债务/GDP 动态不稳定的情况下,世界 GDP 增长的变化可能会扭转债务/GDP 动态的方向,这是第二个重要的国外增长效应。估计结果支持理论模型的规格,并可模拟 Thirlwall 效应、贸易条件和利率冲击对产出增长的影响。利润最大化的银行财团将利率设定为低于增长率,从而确保在存在内部最大值的情况下债务动态保持稳定。巴西的经验表明,内部最大值的条件被违反了,这表明银行必须大力改变经济。通过债务/GDP 比率跃入稳定状态,危机发生的可能性较小;但也不能排除通过高利率导致债务/GDP 进程不稳定、不断增长的可能性,除非稳定条件的实证分析变得更加有利,并引导国家-银行模型进入稳定的稳定状态或摆脱负债,否则可能会导致危机。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond banks: Navigating the shift to peer-to-peer lending for small enterprises 超越银行:引导小企业向点对点贷款转变
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101002
Alina Malkova , Alex Weng
This study sheds light on how non-traditional lending avenues, specifically peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms, influence the financing decisions of small businesses. It introduces a theoretical framework where borrowers weigh the option between opting for a cost-effective traditional bank loan versus an expensive option through crowdlending platforms. The findings suggest that crowdlending platforms become a more appealing choice in the event of credit supply disruptions in traditional banking sectors. Leveraging the phased introduction of mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, our research demonstrates a noticeable pivot of small businesses towards alternative funding sources, such as P2P lending. These findings emphasize the value of offering a variety of financial tools to small businesses so they can weather economic storms.
本研究揭示了非传统贷款渠道,特别是点对点(P2P)贷款平台如何影响小企业的融资决策。研究引入了一个理论框架,即借款人在选择成本效益高的传统银行贷款与通过众包借贷平台选择成本高的贷款之间进行权衡。研究结果表明,在传统银行业信贷供应中断的情况下,众筹平台成为更有吸引力的选择。以 COVID-19 大流行期间分阶段引入的流动性限制为案例,我们的研究表明,小企业明显转向了其他资金来源,如 P2P 借贷。这些发现强调了为小企业提供各种金融工具的价值,以便他们能够经受住经济风暴的考验。
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引用次数: 0
Stronger Patent Regime, Innovation and Scientist Mobility 加强专利制度、创新和科学家流动性
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101004
Madhuparna Ganguly

This paper analyzes the effects of a stronger patent regime on innovation incentives, patenting propensity and scientist mobility when an innovating firm can partially recover its damage due to scientist movement from the infringing rival. The strength of the patent system, which is a function of litigation success probability and damage recovery proportion, stipulates expected indemnification. We show that stronger patents fail to reduce the likelihood of infringement and further, decrease the innovation’s expected profitability. Higher potential reparation also reduces the scientist’s expected return on R&D knowledge, entailing greater R&D investment. Our results suggest important considerations for patent reforms.

本文分析了当创新企业可以部分弥补因竞争对手侵权而造成的科学家流动损失时,较强的专利制度对创新激励、专利申请倾向和科学家流动的影响。专利制度的强度是诉讼成功概率和损害赔偿比例的函数,它规定了预期赔偿。我们的研究表明,较强的专利并不能降低侵权的可能性,反而会降低创新的预期收益率。更高的潜在赔偿也会降低科学家对研发知识的预期回报,从而导致研发投资的增加。我们的研究结果为专利改革提供了重要依据。
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引用次数: 0
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Research in Economics
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